The Chicago Cubs punished the Pirates in the series opener at Wrigley, and they are now 7.5 games ahead of the second place Cardinals in the NL Central. Game 2 of this series looks like a complete mismatch, with Pittsburgh sending a struggling pitcher to the mound. My money is on the Cubs on the runline.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Jeff Locke will be on the mound for the Pirates, and he's really struggled with his command so far. Locke (1-2, 4.68 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits and a pair of walks in six innings in a loss to St. Louis in his last outing. He's 1-2 with a 5.75 ERA in his last seven starts versus the Cubs. Chicago will send ace Jake Arietta to the mound, looking to remain undefeated.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Arrieta has owned the Pirates, holding them to a combined .221 batting average and 30 strikeouts over 136 at bats. He's 4-1 with a 1.34 ERA in his last seven starts against Pittsburgh.

3. X-Factor - The Cubs have won seven straight in this series, and all of those games were decided by more than one run.

Selection: This is a play on the Chicago Cubs -1.5 (8*)