The set-up: The Toronto Blue Jays completed a three-game sweep of the Minnesota Twins with a 9-6 victory on Sunday afternoon and coupled with Boston's loss Sunday night, the Jays open the new week with a two-game lead in the AL East. Meanwhile, the Baltimore avoided a three-game sweep in New York with a 5-0 Sunday win and will open the new week in third-place in the AL East, three games back of the Blue Jays. Baltimore owns the second wild card spot (one game back of the Red Sox) and two games clear of Detroit, as well as three games up on the trio of Houston, KC and Seattle.

The pitching matchup: Marco Estrada (7-6, 3.47 ERA) gets the ball for Toronto and Wade Miley (8-10, 5.51 ERA) for Baltimore. Estrada owns a solid 3.47 ERA on the season but comes off back-to-back starts in which he has given up 11 ERs on 15 hits (five HRs) in just nine innings (11.00 ERA). Miley has struggled since the team acquired him from the Mariners in a late July trade. He finally won his first game as an Oriole when he beat Washington 10-8 last Wednesday. He allowed just two runs in that one but also lasted only five innings. He's 1-2 in five starts with Baltimore (team is 2-3) but owns an ‘ugly' 8.18 ERA.

The pick: Yes, Estrada's ERA has jumped by more than half a run after his last two starts (see above) but he owns a 3.71 ERA in three starts versus Baltimore this season (Jays are 2-1). He's 3-1 with a 3.48 ERA in seven career starts (teams are 5-2) versus the Orioles. Meanwhile, Miley is just 1-3 with a 6.04 ERA versus the Blue Jays over five career starts (teams are 2-3). The Orioles own an impressive 42-22 record at Camden Yards but note that they lost five of six there on their last homestand. With Miley on the mound, Baltimore loses another home game to the AL East's best team. Toronto is a 9* play.