*8* OVER in Penn State - San Diego State has been known as an under team for years but things are changing this season. While it's still early in the year we can get value by fading this long-term trend of unders that is highly unlikely to continue. Even though San Diego State went under in each of their first two games they scored 37 in one and allowed 35 in the other. They've been on the cusp of a breakout run of overs and I feel last week will prove to have opened up the floodgates. Last week the Aztecs totaled 61 points in their game with South Alabama. The once might defense of San Diego State has now given up an average of 498 yards per game in their last two games. Penn State has stayed under the total in each of their first three games this season. However, the Nittany Lions have either scored or allowed 27 points in each of the three games this year. In other words, similar to San Diego State, Penn State has been right on the cusp of a big run of overs. The Nittany Lions have run for 265 yards per game in their last two games while allowing an average of 228 yards per game through the air despite facing weak opposition. Look for both teams to move the ball much better than many are expecting in this one. It's a contrarian play but it has worked many times in the past and I expect the result to be another winner today!