Sometimes you have to take what's there and not overthink things. The Mets beat the Reds 5-1 last night, and their chances of winning this game by two runs or more are just as strong. The Reds will be starting Mike Minor. When Minor starts, the Reds are 1-10 this season, and nine of those 10 losses have been by at least two runs or more.
The Mets are rolling right now with a 13-2 record in their last 15 games, with 12 of those wins coming by two runs or more (they had a 3-2 win over the Yankees on July 27). The Mets are also 6-0 in Carrasco's past six starts, with five of those wins coming by at least two runs or more.
Take the Mets -1.5