I see this line as an overreaction to Luka Doncic being out for Dallas, and this being a back to back for Dallas. The Mavericks beat Denver 123-120 on Friday without Doncic. On Sunday Dallas lost to Miami in overtime, but Dallas is 13-4 ATS when playing on back to back days without rest since last season which is an NBA best.

Atlanta is 15-26-1 (36.6%) ATS as a home favorite since last season, and Dallas is 37-22-2 (62.7%) ATS on the road since last season. Dallas has also covered in three straight games against the Hawks.

1% on Dallas