The Boston Red Sox dropped Game 1 of the ALCS 7-2 but bounced back with a 7-5 triumph Sunday. I don't see them upsetting the Astros here at Minute Maid Park though and I'm happy to back the home team at this price. I also think we'll see a fair amount of runs scored so I'm also recommending a play on the over.

Houston left-hander Dallas Keuchel (12-11, 3.74 ERA) will take the mound on seven days of rest since his start in Game 3 of the ALDS against the Cleveland Indians. The 30 year old does not have a great career record against Boston, but he should still be able to out-duel Boston right-hander Nathan Eovaldi (6-7, 3.81 ERA) who was just 2-6 with a 5.14 ERA in 13 road starts during the regular season. We can also note that Eovaldi served up four homers in six innings of a 5-1 loss when he visited Houston on June 20.

Trends supporting Houston: Astros are 10-1 in their last 11 games following a loss, 13-3 in their last 16 home games and 4-0 in Keuchel's last four starts with seven or more days of rest.

Trends supporting the over: Over is 11-3 in Red Sox last 14 vs. a team with a winning record and 6-2-2 in Eovaldi's last 10 starts overall. Over is 7-0 in Astros last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

8* play on OVER.