Top Rated 10* NL *TOTAL OF THE WEEK*
(MLB) Cincinnati vs. Milwaukee, 08/12/2016 4:10 PM, Score: 7 - 4
Total: 8.50 | 100.00 Under
Result: Win
Top Rated 10* NL *TOTAL OF THE WEEK*
Play: Over
Rating: 10*

The Milwaukee Brewers hit three home runs to defeat the Cincinnati Reds 11-3 on Thursday. The over is 5-1-2 in the last eight meetings, and Friday's pitching matchup suggests another high-scoring encounter tonight.

Jimmy Nelson (6-11, 4.02) takes the ball for the Brew Crew. He's been tagged with 25 runs through only 18 innings in his last four starts combined. Nelson has pitched fairly well against Cincy this season (3.26 ERA through 19 1/3 innings of work), but the Reds have hit the ball alright this month with the eighth best batting average in baseball. Milwaukee's bullpen has been forced to log a lot of innings lately, and combined with Nelson's struggles this looks like it could get ugly real quick.

The Reds turn to Homer Bailey (1-1, 7.27 ERA) who'll make his second start since returning from Tommy John surgery. Bailey lasted just three innings when he was knocked around for five runs on eight hits at Pittsburgh his last time out, and the Reds' bullpen has the worst ERA in the major leagues at 5.11. Ryan Braun is 12-for-34 with two homers off Bailey, who owns a 4.80 ERA in 10 career starts at Miller Park.

The Brewers have averaged 4.80 runs per game this month and the Reds 4.78. I think this game will fly over by a wide margin.