(NBA) Denver vs. LA Clippers, 09/15/2020 9:00 PM, Score: 104 - 89
Total: 207.50 | -110.00 Under
Bookmaker: Bet365
Result: Win
8* Under Nuggets/Clippers (9:05 ET): The Under has cashed in eight consecutive NBA Game 7’s, including the recently completed Celtics-Raptors series. I think that game is a good “comp” for handicapping this Nuggets-Clippers Game 7 as it featured an O/U line that was significantly lower than the previous six games, five of which had already stayed Under. The Under is 4-0-2 in this series and while the previous low O/U line was 214.0 (last game), oddsmakers know what they’re doing with the total and so do I.

Let’s not forget what happened when Denver played a Game 7 in the last round. The final score there was 80-78 against Utah. They shot 37.3% in that winner-take-all game while holding the Jazz to 38.0%. Since starting 13-1 Over in the bubble, things have taken a dramatic turn for the Nuggets in this series as it pertains to the total. As I already mentioned above, we’ve yet to see any game go Over. While five of the six games have seen more than 209.5 total pts scored, Denver isn’t going to be shooting 54.1% again from the field as they did in Game 6.

Though I do like the Clippers to win and cover Game 7, Denver’s defense does need to be respected. After four disastrous efforts to start the Jazz series, the Nuggets have allowed just 1.08 pts per possession, which would have ranked 7th in the league during the regular season. They’ve held the Clippers to just under 42.0% shooting the L3 games. But where I feel the Nuggets will specifically “cool off” in Game 7 is from behind the arc. They’ve made 46% of their 3-pt attempts in the L2 games. For the year, they’re at just 36.4%. 8* Under Nuggets/Clippers