Total: 159.00 | -118.00 Under
Conventional wisdom seems to be that Baylor will be willing to play at Gonzaga’s preferred tempo. The Zags are 7th in the country in adjusted tempo and they lead the country in scoring at 91.6 PPG. However, they haven’t been able to hit that number in regulation in any of the L4 games. They shot 59.6% against Creighton and 58.7% against UCLA, percentages they won’t be able to match here against a longer and more athletic opponent. Baylor has held four of its five Tournament opponents to 63 points or less. That’s a very unrealistic number for this matchup, but they did hold Arkansas (who also likes to play fast) to 72 in the Elite Eight.
This is a high total, even for Gonzaga, and certainly for a National Title Game. It should also be noted that Gonzaga held its first four Tournament opponents to 71 points or less. They are actually quite underrated defensively (8th in the country in efficiency). Baylor won’t shoot 52.7% from the field in this game like they did against Houston. This game may not stay Under by a lot, but I don’t see both teams scoring 80+ and that is likely what would be needed for an Over. 10* Under Baylor/Gonzaga