Money Line: -150.00 Philadelphia (Home)
The Mets won yday on the back of a pair of two-run homers as well as drawing eight walks. But don’t look for that to happen here against Nola, who has had their number in the past with an 8-2 record in 3.30 ERA in 16 career matchups. Nola also looked sharp on Opening Day when he tossed 6 ⅔ solid innings against the Braves. He allowed only two runs on six hits and finished with a 6-0 KW rate. Another encouraging sign for the Phillies so far in 2021 is that their bullpen appears to be much improved (save for yday). Last season, it was the worst in the league. But bullpen performance can fluctuate wildly from season-to-season, so the regression to the mean is not surprising.
Southpaw David Peterson makes his first start of the year for the Mets today. He had a pretty good rookie season in 2020, although not when he faced the Phillies as he gave up five runs in only two innings. He didn’t look very good in the Spring either. The fact that the Mets got eight runs yesterday despite only five hits was certainly unusual and owed to their patience at the plate (those eight walks). But I don’t see them having that kind of success vs. Nola. 8* Philadelphia