8* Over Mariners/Indians (7:10 ET): Even though I won with them on Wednesday, I don’t think Seattle is very good. They lost two of three in Detroit and now own the worst run differential in the American League West. Their overall record (31-33) isn’t that bad, but is being propped up by an AL-high 13 one-run victories. When they had a better record, I considered it fortunate and now we’re seeing the team slip, which I expect will continue. Run differential is typically a strong predictor of future outcomes.

Cleveland has also overachieved based on their YTD run differential (-12). They are five games above .500 despite being outscored on the year and only 4.5 games behind the vastly superior White Sox. The Indians are basically who I thought they’d be in 2021, a team that will finish with a winning record but not make the postseason. The team is coming off four straight high scoring games (all Overs), a stretch where they scored 27 runs but allowed 31. They won two and lost two.

Aaron Civale starts the season opener for the Tribe. He’s allowed 4 runs in B2B starts and has given up five home runs. His lone career start vs. Seattle, which was earlier this year, didn’t go so well as he surrendered five runs in 6 ⅔ IP. Justin Dunn comes off the DL to start for the Mariners today. He’d previously pitched well, but may struggle here after dealing with a shoulder issue. Considering he’s never gone a full six innings this year, don’t expect Dunn to here. Seattle gives up 5.4 rpg on the road and is 7-1 Over its L8 games in Cleveland. 8* Over Mariners/Indians