8* Under Nets/Bucks (3:05 ET): All three games in this series have gone Under. I think it’s fair to call that “surprising,” given that these were the two highest scoring teams in the league during the regular season. Of course, that meant the oddsmakers were going to post high totals for this series. The O/U line closed 235.5 or higher for each of the three games so far. But the last one really stands out. Game 3 stayed Under by 66 points, a record for the last 30 years of NBA Playoff action. Will there be more scoring Sunday? Obviously. But I don’t think there will be 60+ more pts scored. Take the Under.

Milwaukee will be looking to even the series here after winning Game 3 86-83. They just barely failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites, which was upsetting to me as I laid the points. It is interesting how the line has shifted for Game 4 with Milwaukee now an underdog at home. I think the concern for them has to be the fact that other than Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton, the rest of the team combined for 18 points and made just eight field goals in Game 3. Will that go up? Again, obviously. But the Bucks are also coming off B2B 86-point games. I just don’t see a “magic” return to the regular season average when so many players are shooting so poorly, especially from three-point range.

Even Kevin Durant was only 11 of 28 from the floor in Game 3. Brooklyn is now 12-4 Under its L16 games against teams with winning records and all of them from here on out are going to fall into that situation. The most total points scored in any of the three games was 222 (Game 1) and that was with a blistering pace set in the first half. Again, I know the expectation is for a higher scoring game this afternoon, but making up the discrepancy between Game 3 and the O/U line here seems dicey. 8* Under Nets/Bucks