8* Houston (2:10 ET): I had the Under in this matchup last night. That it came in was not a surprise, but the Twins being the 5-2 winners did catch me a bit “off-guard.” As I’ve said many times previous to this (including in yday’s analysis), I fully expect Houston to overtake Oakland in the American League West. Just look at the respective run differentials! Only three teams in all of MLB have better YTD run differentials than the Astros (White Sox, Dodgers, Rays). So I’m calling for them to bounce back Sunday.

Handing the baseball to Framber Valdez seems like a good idea seeing as he’s posted a 1.47 ERA and 0.873 WHIP thus far. It’s still a relatively small sample size, but considering the two teams he’s faced (Padres, Red Sox), those numbers are impressive. In four career regular season appearances vs. the Twins, Valdez has a 1.86 ERA. He also beat them in the playoffs last year when he threw five shutout innings of relief. The Astos are 3-0 off a loss in June, scoring 25 runs in the three games. So Valdez can probably count on some decent run support here as well.

Michael Pineda will oppose Valdez on Sunday. He has a 5.06 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Astros. Minnesota has been especially bad off a win this season (just 9-15), so history REALLY supports the road team bouncing back today. The Twins have lost Pineda’s last two starts and he didn’t really give them much, going just 4 ⅓ and 3 innings. He had just three strikeouts in the two games. The Twins are 0-6 after allowing 2 runs or less. 8* Houston