9* Atlanta (4:05 ET): Underdogs in division games are generally a solid bet the first five weeks of the NFL season. Such teams have cashed over 60% of the time going back to 2006. Double digit dogs in divisional matchups tend to always catch my eye as more often than not you get closer games than expected when the opponents are familiar with one another. So I’ll take a flier on Atlanta here despite the fact they were blown out at home last week, 32-6 by Philadelphia. The Falcons have covered seven of the last eight times they’ve gotten 10 or more points from the oddsmakers.

The defending Super Bowl Champs nearly lost the season opener, needing a late drive from Tom Brady to set up the game-winning field goal. Not only did Tampa Bay barely escape against Dallas last Thursday, but HC Bruce Arians is 0-4 ATS all-time as a double digit favorite. So that’s another reason to take the points in this NFC South matchup. Then you’ve got the fact that the Bucs turned the ball over four times against the Cowboys while the defense gave up 450 total yards. Now Dallas is more talented than Atlanta, but I think the Falcons will score enough to stay within the number here. TB allowed 30 first downs last week!

Now I know what you’re saying. The Falcons only scored SIX points last week. It was a dreadful showing, one that the new coaching staff should be embarrassed about. But Arthur Smith will have his team ready here. Remember that Atlanta still has QB Matt Ryan. Eight of their 12 losses last season were by seven points or less as they were far better than their record. Seven times they lost a game by less than six points. That includes a blown 17-0 halftime lead against Brady and the Bucs. TB will be without starting CB Sean Murphy-Bunting and did not tackle well in the first game. 9* Atlanta