9* Baltimore (8:20 ET): Even though the Ravens are on a short week and lost their opener, my power rankings still call this SNF matchup with the Chiefs a pick ‘em. There are definitely some issues with Baltimore right now. Injuries at the running back position plus a defense that doesn’t look quite as good as last year are the primary ones. But lest we forget how good this team has been the last few seasons. They are 9-1 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2018 season. That includes 6-1 with Lamar Jackson as the starter and the Ravens are 5-2 straight up in those seven games. The only previous time that Jackson was a home dog came against New England in ‘19. Baltimore won that game 37-20.

Kansas City has been living very dangerously going back to the second half of last season. They are 2-10 ATS their last 12 games, excluding preseason. It was only a four-point win at home over Cleveland last week, 33-29, where the Chiefs’ defense gave up a horrendous 8.2 yards per play. I played the Browns plus the points in that one, a wire to wire cover that saw them leading outright for most of the game, including 22-10 at the half. Were it not for a big special teams play (Browns’ punter mishandled the snap and ended up turning the ball over deep in his own territory), KC likely does not win that game. Had they lost, my guess is this spread would have been a lot closer to ‘pick em.

Getting back to the Chiefs “living dangerously,” nine of their last ten wins (regular season and playoffs) have been by six points or less. That kind of good luck in close games is bound to regress eventually and I’m not going to be surprised at all when they lose a couple of close ones this season. While the Ravens are 0-3 SU vs. KC the L3 seasons, two of those games were decided by five points or less and one went to overtime. I think people are writing off Baltimore far too quickly. They are certainly able to win this game, so take the points. 9* Baltimore