Point Spread: 3.00 | -120.00 Buffalo (Away)
This is pretty clearly not the same Chiefs team that we saw make the Super Bowl each of the last two years. A defense that’s 31st in scoring and 32nd in yards per play is pretty difficult to overcome, even if you have Patrick Mahomes. Not to mention the entire starting offensive line is different from 2020. The defense allowed 29+ points in every game so far and really struggles in the red zone, which is huge for a Buffalo offense that would have even more points if not for settling for nine field goals in 21 RZ opportunities. Meanwhile, Mahomes faces a stiff test this week going up against the league’s #1 scoring defense, which has allowed just 21 points in the L3 games (all to Washington) & is #1 in yards per play.
Truthfully, Kansas City was “playing with fire” last season as they were a ridiculously lucky 9-0 SU in games decided by six points or less. Given that record, it’s not really a surprise to see the team regressing somewhat in 2021. Before last week’s 42-30 win in Philadelphia, the Chiefs had covered just two of its previous 14 games. There’s also a revenge angle in play Sunday night as the Bills lost twice to the Chiefs last season, including in the AFC Championship Game. Revenge is one thing, but the Bills are simply better than the Chiefs right now with an obviously massive edge on the defensive side of the ball. Take the points. 9* Buffalo