(NFL) Buffalo vs. New Orleans, 11/25/2021 8:20 PM, Score: 31 - 6
Total: 45.50 | -110.00 Under
Result: Win
10* Under Bills/Saints (8:20 ET): Both the Bills and Saints come into Thanksgiving off blowout losses. In fact, the Saints have lost three straight games (first time since 2016). Two of those losses were close, but last week’s wasn’t as they fell 40-29 to the Eagles. But that was a bit of a misleading final as Philly had three scoring drives start in Saints’ territory + a pick six. Also, New Orleans had two TD drives start inside the Eagles’ 40-yard line. So the fourth straight Saints game to Over the total was pretty misleading all-around.

The Bills’ 41-15 loss to the Colts was also a little misleading. Like the Saints, the Bills also had a slight edge in yards per play on Sunday. That sounds crazy considering the scores, but it is true. Buffalo was also done in by turnovers. They had four (and didn’t force any), which led to three Indianapolis touchdown drives, two of which started deep in Buffalo territory. As for the Bills offense, there were two missed field goals, but it was also the second time in three weeks that they scored 15 points or less. That’s not good.

These two defenses surrendering 40+ points is quite uncharacteristic. In fact, the number of points allowed last week were season-worsts for both teams. The Bills defense still has given up the fewest number of total yards in the league and also ranks second in scoring (17.6 PPG allowed). Most of New Orleans’ points last week came in the fourth quarter during “garbage time” and it’s looking unlikely that they will have RB Alvin Kamara for this game. Trevor Siemian has proven to be a below-average QB. As for the Saints’ defense, the number of rush yards it allowed last week was highly uncharacteristic (though it was the second year in a row that the Eagles shredded them on the ground). Entering that game, New Orleans was #1 in the league at stopping the run. The Under has hit each of the last six years in the primetime Thanksgiving window. Make it seven in a row. 10* Under Bills/Saints