8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Titans are off a shocking loss where they outgained the Texans 420-190. But they were also -5 in turnover differential and that’s the primary reason they lost 22-13 as 10-point favorites. That and they are a banged up football team right now. But Tennessee still has the best WL record in the AFC right now (8-3 SU) and I think they can stay within the number this week, despite playing the new hottest team in the NFL. The Titans are a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season, also winning outright all five times! Not saying they’ll win outright again here, but take the points.

The Patriots seem to be the new “toast of the town” right now as they’ve won five in a row, four of those victories coming by 18 or more points. Bill Belichick’s team entered Thanksgiving with the top point differential in the league at +123. (Have since been passed in the department by Buffalo). The league’s top scoring defense (16.1 PPG allowed) has been key, but so has being +9 in turnover differential during the win streak. The Pats have also covered five in a row, so between that and the Titans’ record as a dog, something will have to give Sunday. My thinking is the Pats are EXTREMELY popular right now and it’s probably a good time to fade. This line has really risen during the week.

New England is off the “mini-bye,” after playing last Thursday. They shut the Falcons out 25-0 last time we saw them. But if you think the extended rest is a good thing for the Patriots, then think again as they are 0-6 ATS the L6 times they’ve been off extra rest. Tennessee isn’t just perfect as a dog, they are also 4-1 ATS on the road. HC Mike Vrabel is 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Belichick, whom he previously served under. I think the Titans’ loss last week was HIGHLY misleading (given the total yardage discrepancy) while at the same time wanting to “sell high” on the Pats. 8* Tennessee