(NFL) LA Chargers vs. Denver, 11/28/2021 4:05 PM, Score: 13 - 28
Point Spread: 3.00 | -120.00 Denver (Home)
Result: Win
9* Denver (4:05 ET): It seems as if every Chargers’ game ends up close these days. Five of the last six have been decided by seven points or less and they’ve won three of those. The Chargers’ history in closely-contested affairs is not good, so it’s a bit of a surprise to see them 5-3 in one-score games this year. Despite being 6-4 SU overall, the Chargers have a -5 point differential. I know that last week’s 41-37 win over Pittsburgh should NOT have ended up so close, but still I think it’s dicey to trust Brandon Staley’s team laying points on the division road.

Despite being a game behind LA in the AFC West standings, Denver actually has a better YTD point differential (+17). Considering that and that they both at home and off a bye, the Broncos should be favored here. After not being favored in a single game last season (only team in the league that could say that), Denver was actually favored in its first six games of 2021. They’ve only been an underdog in two games this season. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 0-3 ATS their last three games as a favorite. The Broncos are also 9-2 ATS off a bye, including 2-0 under HC Vic Fangio.

The home team already had a decided edge defensively. They allow only 18.3 PPG. The Chargers allow 26.5 PPG and rank 32nd (i.e. last) against the run. Now Bradley Chubb has been activated and is expected to play Sunday. That should bolster Denver’s pass rush and keep the pressure on Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert. Also, as we saw again last week vs. Pittsburgh - when they had a punt blocked - LA’s special teams continue to be a major liability. Take the points. 9* Denver