Love this spot for Hawaii as the market has over-reacted in a big way to recent performance. First of all, Hawaii were a respectable 2-3 before losing four straight, including a brutal 35-0 shutout last week at home to SJSU. It's safe to say they are at the lowest power rating point of the season. Nevada were 0-6 before winning two straight, but against a truly awful strength of schedule. The Wolfpack are 5-3 ATS compared to 2-6-1 for The Rainbow Warriors. Long-term clients will know how we like to take advantage of buy-low situations, and that is exactly what we have here with Hawaii. These guys showed last season that they can turn it on down the stretch as they are coached to play with dignity and respect regardless of how their season is turning out. For example, last season they managed to cover seven of their last eight, which actually included a 15 point win over Nevada. Let's also add this monster trend to the mix... anytime an unranked visitor is a four point underdog or less; they have produced a +9.6% ROI on the blind across more than a 1,500 game sample size. It's hard to price bad teams, but that's why there is ultimately so much value to be had on the dogs. We believe the wrong team is favored and Hawaii win this outright.