CFB MWC Game of the Month
(NCAAF) New Mexico vs. Air Force, 11/20/2020 9:30 PM, Score: 0 - 28
Point Spread: -7.00 | -110.00 Air Force (Home)
Bookmaker: Bet365
Result: Win
#330 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Air Force Falcons (-) over New Mexico Lobos, Friday at 9:30 PM ET - This line opened up at double digits and, as of Thursday afternoon, is down to a -7 on the Falcons. We like the line value here with a move that we fully understand here but absolutely disagree with. Part of the reason for the move is Rocky Long is the defensive coordinator for New Mexico and he has, in his pedigree, a history of stopping option teams. However, he doesn't have the personnel this season to do it. Three of the key components to properly stopping an option attack are game-planning, talent, and execution. Long can game-plan all he wants but he still has to have the proper personnel and disciplined players to go out and execute and this is a bad Lobos defense. So far this season they have not given up much on the ground but that's simply because teams know they can throw all over them. In other words it does not necessarily mean that New Mexico is built to stop the run, it just means that when a team is allowing 410.3 passing yards per game why not throw against them? That is the type of defense we're talking about here...a very bad one! The Lobos have lost all 3 of their games this season and each of the last two seasons they were beaten badly in their match-ups with Air Force. The Falcons won those games by an average margin of 20 points per game. Also, AF averaged 345.5 yards per game on the ground and 236 yards through the air. The Falcons enter this game off back to back losses but had over 400 yards rushing in their most recent game and that was against a tough Boise State team! Now Air Force enters well-rested as they have had some covid issues result in postponements in recent weeks. They will be ready to go here and just like in their season opener against Navy (we had the Falcons in that blowout win of 40-7) when everyone doubts Air Force they seem to be at their best. Look for them to take advantage of a Lobos offense likely to again be without QB Tevaka Tuioti (doubtful - concussion) and that means we likely again see Trae Hall under center. Hall has a 0-2 TD-INT ratio this season and has been sacked 4 times in just about 40 dropbacks to pass plus he has not had success running the ball. He also completes only about 50% of his passes. On the other side of the ball, again Long just doesn't have the guys to be a successful defense. This team lost nearly every starter from last year's defense and they are especially thin up front. New Mexico has been playing their games in, and practicing in, Vegas due to covid issues in New Mexico. Air Force has been at home and hungry to get back on the field after the Falcons lost at home against Boise State 3 weeks ago. The Falcons have extra rest while the Lobos are playing a 4th straight week and the AF ground game will eventually wear them down. The Falcons roll in this one. This one has the makings of a home blowout and we're laying the points with Air Force.