CFB Game of the Week Money
(NCAAF) San Diego State vs. Nevada, 11/21/2020 3:30 PM, Score: 21 - 26
Money Line: -114.00 San Diego State (Away)
Bookmaker: PinnacleSports
Result: Loss
#387 ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -115 over Nevada, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Most may look at this line and wonder why a 4-0 Nevada team is a home underdog in this game. We look at it and see line value with the road favorite. When these two met last year San Diego State was a 17 point favorite. Nevada pulled the huge upset in that game winning 17-13 despite getting outgained by nearly 100 yards. That loss has put a huge emphasis on this game for the Aztecs. Has Nevada improved that much where they go from a 17 point dog to just a 1.5 point dog? It may look that way with their 4-0 record but we don’t think so. The Wolfpack have played arguably the worst schedule in college football. Their last 3 games have come against UNLV, Utah State, and New Mexico, three teams we have power rated in the bottom 15 teams in the nation. Last week they barely squeaked by a New Mexico team that has won just 2 of their last 22 games. The yardage was basically even in that game yet the Lobos outrushed Nevada 141 to 52 in that 27-20 Wolfpack win. That simply emphasized Nevada’s struggles in the running game this year. Despite their easy schedule, they are averaging only 99 YPG on the ground. SDSU will have a HUGE advantage running the ball as they average 280 YPG rushing this season which is 4th nationally with Nebraska transfer Bell leading the way. The Nevada offense has solid numbers on the year but again, the last 3 defenses they’ve faced rank 122nd, 116th, and 107th nationally. San Diego State’s defense ranked 5th nationally last year and they are sitting at #3 in total defense so far this year. With Nevada unable to run the ball, they obviously put the ball in the air a lot. Their QB Strong averages 42 pass attempts per game. He may have a tough time in this game vs the Aztecs who rank 3rd nationally in pass defense this year. That includes holding a pass happy Hawaii team who ranks in the top 5 in passing yards this year to barely 200 yards in last week’s 34-10 SDSU win. The Aztecs have put massive pressure on opposing QB’s this year ranking 10th in the country in sack percentage and 11th in sacks per game. The Nevada offensive line is the weak point of this offense and they rank 107th in sacks allowed despite playing weak opponents. This will be, by far, the best defense and defensive front they’ve faced this season. Now we realize SDSU also played UNLV and Utah State this year but they’ve also faced a very solid San Jose State team and a decent Hawaii team. If we look at the 2 common opponents (UNLV & Utah St) the Aztecs outscored them 72-13 with a total yardage edge of +593 yards and a rushing edge of +511 yards. Nevada outscored those 2 opponents 71-28 with a total yardage edge of +481 and a rushing edge of just 33 yards. SDSU has simply been the much better program as of late with a 38-15 record over the last 4 years compared to Nevada’s 23-25 mark over the same period. We like the team that is stronger in the trenches, with the better defense, and the better running game to win this one. The motivated Aztecs get their revenge here.