#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Kansas City vs Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:10 PM ET – Josh Fleming gets the start for the Rays and he was born in Missouri. This road trip to Kansas City is a special one for him and he will have a lot of supporters in the stands for this one. The Tampa Bay southpaw, now in his 2nd season in the majors, is 5-1 with a 2.65 ERA in 8 career appearances, 6 of which were starts. He faces a Royals team that has decent overall season numbers at the plate but that is because those stats are skewed by their first two games this season when they scored 25 runs. Since then, KC has averaged scoring only 3 runs per game its past 12 games. The Royals, not including extra innings, have been held to 3 or less runs in 10 of those 12 games! Unsurprisingly, given those numbers, Kansas City is on an under run that has seen the under cash in 9 of 11 games! The Rays, on the other hand, have been trending over the total but this is atypical of Tampa Bay baseball and there should be a regression to the mean. The way the Royals Danny Duffy is throwing, that regression should include this game staying under the total. Duffy is 2-0 with an 0.75 ERA and has fanned 11 in 12 innings this season. Though the Rays have trended over this season, yesterday's game did stay under the total and was the 7th time in 9 games in which Tampa Bay was held to 4 or less runs. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER.