#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Reds -1.5 -115 on Run Line over Chicago Cubs, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - The Cubs have lost 11 straight games. With yesterday's 4-1 loss at Miami, 9 of Chicago's last 10 losses have been by at least a margin of two runs. The Reds are off a 7-4 win at Philadelphia yesterday. Cincinnati has won 8 of 12 games. The Reds last 7 wins have featured 6 victories by at least a margin of two runs. We like the run line value here with the home team in what should be another blowout loss for floundering Chicago. The Cubs average margin of defeat in their last dozen losses is 4.7 runs! Indeed Chicago is often getting beaten badly and this one looks like more of the same. Cincinnati is 8-2 in Wade Miley's home starts and he has a 2.56 ERA at Great American Ball Park this season. Justin Steele starts for the Cubs and has shown some flashes with good stuff. However, he struggled last week in his first ever MLB start. He has been working mostly out of the pen for Chicago and this is his rookie season. In his last full season in the minors, 2019, Steele went 0-6 with a 5.59 ERA in his 11 starts. The Reds have scored an average of 6.17 runs during their current 8-4 run. The Cubs have been held to 4 or less runs in 8 of last 9 games. In fact the Cubs have averaged scoring only 2.13 runs in those 8 defeats. Per our computer math model an easy win for the home team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -115 price range on the run line. Take Cincinnati Reds -1.5 on the run line.