#394 ASA PLAY ON 8* Purdue +3 over Michigan State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Sparty is obviously in a tough spot on the road here coming off their biggest win in a number of years topping arch rival Michigan last week. It was a game MSU trailed by 16 late in the 3rd quarter, were outgained 552 to 395 and allowed a Michigan offense that was averaging 208 YPG passing in Big 10 play to throw for over 400 yards. Not surprising as Michigan State’s pass defense is terrible ranking 129th out of 130 FBS teams. That’s bad news this week vs a Purdue offense that loves to throw the ball and they are good at it ranking 14th nationally averaging 307 YPG through the air. MSU has had a number of tight games in which they were actually outplayed on the stat sheet. They’ve actually been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games. They struggled with Nebraska at home winning in OT and nearly were upset @ Indiana winning by just 5 points. While they are undefeated this team is not playing to that level having outgained their opponents by just +22 YPG this season. They face a solid Purdue team that comes in off a nice road win @ Nebraska. The Boilers also dominated Iowa a few weeks back 24-7 giving the Hawks their first loss of the season. They are very good defensively ranking 18th nationally and give up 110 fewer YPG than the Michigan State defense! The Spartans are going to get picked off very soon and we feel it happens right here. We like Purdue +3 at home.