#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +6.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Vikings have a record of 3-4 but they are better than their record. Their 4 losses have come by a combined 15 points with their biggest loss coming by 7 points. They were ahead or tied in the 4th quarter in 3 of those losses. Minnesota currently has a + point differential along with a positive YPP & YPG differential. Baltimore is coming off a bye and a blowout loss @ home vs Cincinnati. While many may think this is a great spot to jump on them, we think the Ravens are overvalued. 3 of their 5 wins have come by 1 point vs KC (not as impressive as it once seemed), winless Detroit by 2 points, Indy in OT in a game they trailed by 16 in the 4th quarter. They also beat a bad Denver team and their lone impressive win was vs the LA Chargers. The Raven defense ranks 30th in the NFL in YPP allowed and they are giving up 65 more total yards than they were last season. Dating back to the 2016 season, Minnesota is 21-10-1 ATS when coming off a SU loss – they loss at home vs Dallas last weekend. We project this one to go to the wire. Getting nearly a TD with Minnesota is a solid value.