#356 ASA TOP PLAY ON Iowa State +1 over Kansas State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - ISU is in must win mode at home here after losing back to back games vs Baylor (lost by 7) and Kansas (lost by 3). In their 14-11 loss @ KU last week the Cyclones outgained Jayhawks by 100+ yards but missed 3 of their 4 FG’s in a game they should have won. Make note the ISU kicker was perfect on the season coming into the game so it’s not as if that has been a problem in the past. KSU is off back to back huge wins vs Oklahoma and Texas Tech but were outgained in both. The game prior to that the Wildcats lost at home to Tulane and the yardage was dead even. The Cats are a bit fortunate to be 4-1 as they’ve only outgained their 5 opponents by an average of 33 YPG but they are already +9 turnovers this season. KSU averages just 150 YPG passing (115th nationally) and they rely heavily on their running game to move the offense. That might be tough here as they are facing an Iowa State defense that 8th in the country in total defense (255 YPG allowed) and 7th in rush defense giving up just 83 YPG. Last week the ISU defense faced a Kansas offense that ranked 13th in rushing (228 YPG) to barely 100 yards on 3.6 YPC. The Cyclones have outgained their opponents this year by +126 YPG and their defense is allowing only 4.4 YPP which is a full 1 YPP better than KSU’s stop unit. The Clones were favored by 6.5 at Kansas State last year (and won) and this year they are home underdogs. Too much of a line swing in our opinion and with games vs Texas and Oklahoma on deck, this is a huge home game for Iowa State. We have this game powered to dead even so we like the value with the host.