#953 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs - Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Phillies took game 1 of the series in a higher scoring 6-5 game but we like tonight’s match up to stay Under 7. The Phils have their top starter on the mound tonight in Zach Wheeler. He has been outstanding all season long but he’s turned his game up a notch in the post-season. He has started 4 games in the playoffs totaling 25.1 innings and he’s allowed just 10 hits during that stretch and 5 earned runs. The Houston line up has seen very little of Wheeler with 11 total plate appearances among their entire team and he did not face them this season giving him a big advantage here in our opinion. The Phillies will face Houston starter Valdez and he has been lights out as well in the post-season. He’s pitched 12.2 innings in the playoffs giving up just 8 hits and 2 ER’s. Both are low HR pitchers allowing 0.76 and 0.50 per innings so the long ball will be tough to come by tonight after they combined for 3 round trippers last night. After these 2 exit, the Houston bullpen has been one of the best in baseball all season with a 2.67 ERA and while Philadelphia’s relievers weren’t as impressive during the regular season, in their 12 playoff games their ERA is just 2.81. Neither of these teams has a great batting average in the post-season, both right around .230, but the Phillies have been fortunate to hit .307 in the playoffs with runners in scoring position, well above their team batting average. Some regression is expected on that end, especially vs Valdez who has held this line up to a .135 batting average (lifetime) in 42 plate appearances. When Wheeler and Valdez have started in the post-season (4 starts) their games have averaged a total of 5 runs. We see another low scoring game tonight in Houston.