#978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 3:05 PM ET - Extra rest is not exactly welcome this early in the season. Lineups are trying to get their timing going at the plate. Starting pitchers are trying to get settled into their regular routine. That said, this is a very tough spot for the Reds and particularly Hunter Greene. Cincinnati was supposed to play the Cubs Wednesday in the finale of that series but it was rained out. Then the opener of this series with the Phillies was rained out. Greene started the season opener for Cincinnati so he was supposed to pitch on more typical rest Wednesday but did not. Then Thursday's game was rained out and, remember, the Reds had an offday last Friday too. So they have played just 4 games in the past 7 days. The hitters are impacted and Greene is definitely impacted here. As for Wheeler, he pitched Saturday so he is in good shape here. Wheeler struggled in his first start this season, as did Greene, but Wheeler dominated at home last season with a 6-3 record and a 1.85 ERA and also the prior season he was 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA in starts in Philly and 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park in 2020. As a member of the division rival Mets prior to 2020, he dominated in terms of hits per innings pitched in starts in Philly. The fact is Wheeler loves it at CBP and dominates a bad Reds team here. This is Cincinnati's first road game and the Phillies first home game this season. Reds were 29-52 in road games last season. On the year last season, 77% of the Reds losses were by at least 2 runs. Phillies, including post-season, are on a 53-36 run in home games including 20-7 last 27. Phillies 6-1 L7 against the Reds and 4-0 L4 at home and the 6 wins by an average victory margin of 3 runs. The home/road dichotomy, the edge of Wheeler on good rest over Greene on too much rest, the defending NL Champs over one of the worst teams in MLB...it all adds up to a must play here. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Phillies. Lay it!