#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over in this one. This total dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 which is giving us extra value. The weather will be decent by Detroit standards for April. We get a lower total here because of Kyle Gibson's numbers and the fact the Tigers are not great offensively. The key here is all the value these market perceptions have led to. Detroit actually hits better at home than they do on the road. Also, the Orioles have been one of the top hitting teams in the majors this season on the road. The Tigers also just faced Gibson and he shut them down in Baltimore. However, now they will get a quick second look at him and he has struggled on the road in recent seasons. This has been a marked dichotomy for Gibson and it has already continued for him early this season in that he is better at home than on the road. Also, the last few times he has pitched at Comerica Park in Detroit, they have been complete disasters as Gibson has been hit very hard. As for Tigers starter Joey Wentz, he just faced the Orioles and it did not end well. Now Baltimore's lineup gets to quickly see him again and Wentz is likely to get hit very hard in the rematch as well. The Tigers have played 8 home games this season and, other than one outlier which was a 1-0 win, the 7 other home games averaged totaling 10 runs per game! The Orioles also have a rare outlier with a 1-0 shutout win on the road but have scored an average of 5.8 runs in their other 10 road games this season. Our computer math model shows a range of 9 to 10 as the most likely occurrence with the final run tally here and many simulations show a final run tally in the 11 to 12 range. Over is the call in this one Thursday evening.