ASA Free Play Saturday CFB
(NCAAF) Liberty vs. Buffalo, 09/16/2023 12:00 PM, Score: 55 - 27
Point Spread: 3.50 | -110.00 Buffalo (Home)
Result: Loss
#122 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo +3.5 over Liberty, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We like this situation with Buffalo at home for the 2nd straight week off an embarrassing 40-37 loss vs Fordham last week. While it may look like a terrible loss, Fordham is decent (top 25 FCS team) that has won 19 of their last 25 games. The Bulls jumped out to a quick 21-3 lead in that game and outgained the Rams on a YPP basis but ran 20 fewer offensive snaps. Fordham scored with just over 2:00 remaining to take the 40-37 lead but Buffalo actually led the game for 49 of the 60 minutes. That unexpected loss gives us some nice value here. If this game was played in week 1 Buffalo would have been right around a 1 point favorite and now they are +3.5 vs an overvalued Liberty team. The Flames are 2-0 under new HC Chadwell but they haven’t been overly impressive. They beat a bad Bowling Green team by 10 points in week 1 but struggled to do so despite the Falcons turning the ball over 5 times (1 turnover for Liberty). Despite that disparity in turnovers, that was a one score game late in the 4th quarter. Last week the Flames had a huge revenge game vs New Mexico State and won 33-17 despite the YPP numbers being dead even. They again benefitted from 3 NMSU turnovers so now Liberty opponents have coughed up the ball 8 times in 2 games! Now after that revenger (lost 49-14 to NMSU last year) the Flames go on the road for the first time this season against an 0-2 team that really needs this win. Buffalo faced Chadwell’s old team, Coastal Carolina, last season so they’ve seen this offense which gives them a nice advantage. Liberty’s defense has been shredded on the ground allowing 6.6 YPC (128th nationally) which allow Bulls QB Snyder (459 yards passing and 5 TDs with 0 picks) to have a big day. Bad defense in a bad spot laying point on the road? No thanks. Buffalo played Wisconsin very well in the first half in week 1 before the Badgers pulled away late and they are desperate here with their next 2 games on the road. They catch Liberty a bit fat and happy with a 2-0 record and Buffalo pulls the upset.