TOTAL SPECIAL (OFF 2-0 S-W-E-E-P!)
(MLB) Miami vs. LA Dodgers, 08/21/2022 4:10 PM, Score: 3 - 10
Total: 7.50 | -104.00 Over
Result: Win
This is an 8* TOTAL SPECIAL on the OVER Marlins/Dodgers.

Both teams have been playing to some lower-scoring outcomes of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this afternoon.

The Marlins have seen the total in nine of their last ten, including in the first two games of this series here in LA. That includes a 7-0 setback yesterday. Note though that Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss against an opponent.

Despite having seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four, the Dodgers still enter with the league's No. 1 offense, averaging 5.31 runs per game.

Sandy Alcantara is 11-5 with a 1.92 ERA for the Marlins. He's been one of the only bright spots for this team again this season. It's difficult to say anything negative about Alcantara, so I won't even bother. Clearly, facing the Dodgers in their own backyard is a difficult task for any opponent, and this is just a case of the Miami ace being in the wrong place, at the wrong time.

The home side counters with Ryan Pepiot, who is 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA after 25 innings of work. He also sports a pedestrian 29 to 20 strikeout to walk ratio.

The sample size here is just too small for Pepiot. We do expect Miami to score a couple runs here at least, and when taking into account the rest of the above information, we're looking for this total to fly OVER the posted number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP