Total: 7.50 | -111.00 Over
I had a play on the OVER in this series yesterday, and while that pick did come up short, I love the way Thursday's contest finally does set up as a "SLUG-FEST."
The Cardinals have now seen the total go UNDER in three straight, losing 3-0 to the Reds, 5-0 here to San Diego to open this series, and then 1-0 yesterday.
Note that St. Louis has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last nine after three or more straight shutout losses in a row. The Cards have also seen the total go OVER the number in six of their last eight in trying to avenge back-to-back losse against an opponent.
The Padres are arguably playing their best baseball of the season right now, entering on a five-game win streak. They've also seen the total go UNDER the number in four straight.
All of these recent "UNDERS" that these sides have been involved in has led to today's total being a little lower than it really should be. The value swings the other way as far as the total is concerned finally in this one.
The Padres hand the ball to Joe Musgrove, who is 10-7 with a 3.16 ERA. He'll be opposed by Jack Flaherty, who is 0-1 with a 5.09 ERA. THis is Flaherty's fourth start of the season, and clearly a tough one here facing the red hot Padres. Musgrove is 2-7 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.416 WHIP and .260 opponents' batting average in ten starts vs. St. Louis.
The situation, combined with the numbers/trends all point to the OVER as the correct call in this one.
Good luck, NP