It's hard to win by over nine points when the total for the game is just 39.5. This will be a slow, grind it out, run the ball game from both teams. Jax QB Blake Bortles remains mistake-prone despite improving on the season, and the Bills defense has enough to force a turnover or two from him. In a game that figures to be defensive receiving a touchdown-plus offers solid value. Neither of these two teams have players that are postseason experienced to any significant degree and the Jags are being overvalued by the oddsmakers based on a regular season that saw the defense standout. The Bills want you to believe that there is a question mark about the playing status of Shady McCoy but Tyrod Taylor will have his running back active and ready for Sunday's contest. I believe the Jaguars win this one, but Buffalo will keep it close, and they have an outside shot of stealing this game. Take the+ 8.5-9 points.