CFB 5*
(NCAAF) Iowa State vs. Kansas State, 10/16/2021 7:30 PM, Score: 33 - 20
Point Spread: 6.50 | -103.00 Kansas State (Home)
Result: Loss
Iowa State @ Kansas State 7:30 PM ET
Game# 197-198
Play On: Kansas State +6.5 (5*)

Kansas State has been a profitable conference home underdog in recent seasons. Specifically speaking, since 2011 Kansas State is 9-3 SU&ATS as a conference home underdog of 7.0 or less. Conversely, since 2019, Iowa State has gone 0-4 ATS as a conference away favorite of 7.0 or less and lost 3 of those contests straight up. Additionally, Kansas State has won 7 consecutive home games versus Iowa State.

Kansas State got off to a 3-0 start but unfortunately dropped their last 2 games. There is a silver lining to those losses when considering they came against #12 Oklahoma State (4-0) and #4 Oklahoma (6-0). It’s not like they were blown out as their defeat at Oklahoma State was 31-20, and in their previous game the Wildcats lost 37-31 to Oklahoma but covered as a 12.0-point home underdog. The Wildcats will be playing with big time revenge after being throttled 45-0 at Iowa State last season.

Iowa State was ranked in the Top 10 preseason rankings. However, they’re off to a 3-2 start and they’re currently unranked. The Cyclones are coming off a 59-7 home rout of Kansas. Iowa State is 0-2 SU&ATS this season following a win. The Cyclones lone 3 wins came over Northern Iowa (FCS level team) 16-10 in a game they were a 31.5-point favorite, Kansas (1-4), and UNLV (0-5).

Any college football conference home underdog of 4.0 to 10.5 points (Kansas State) that’s playing with revenge, and they’re coming off a home loss by 9 points or fewer in which they covered as an underdog, versus an opponent (Iowa State) with a winning record, resulted in those home underdogs going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 2002. Those underdogs also went 13-7 SU in those games as well. Bet Kansas State plus the points.