NBA 5*
(NBA) Miami vs. Boston, 05/21/2022 8:30 PM, Score: 109 - 103
Total: 208.00 | -114.00 Under
Result: Loss
Heat @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET
Game# 561-562
Play On: Under 208.0 (5*)

Boston has played 4-1 to the under in their last 5 at home. Conversely, Miami has seen 4 of its 5 road playoff games go under the total. The Heat hangs their hat on its staunch defensive play. With that said, they won’t take to kindly to Boston hanging 127 points on them in Game 2 while also shooting better than 50%. I look for Miami to be more focused defensively from the start of this contest unlike what we saw in the first 2 games when they allowed 62 and 70-points during 1st half action. Boston is no stranger to playing good defense. They ranked #1 in the NBA on most pertinent defensive categories during regular season action. Both teams are averaging 84 field goal attempts per game during the postseason which equates to a slower than average pace.

Any NBA away team (Heat) with a total of 200.0-209.5 that’s gone over the total in their last 2 games and each by 18.0 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .600-.750, resulted in those games playing 25-7 (78.1%) to the under since 1996. The average total in those 32 contests was 204.6 and there were a combined 199.7 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total.