PREMIUM
Ross’ CFB 32-9 ATS (78%) Super Angle
(NCAAF) SMU vs. UCF,
10/05/2022 7:00 PM, Score: 19 - 41
Point Spread: 3.00 | -112.00 SMU (Away)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: 3.00 | -112.00 SMU (Away)
Result: Loss
SMU @ Central Florida 7:00 PM ET
Game# 421-422
Play On: SMU +3.0 (5*)
Central Florida is coming off a 27-10 home win over Georgia Tech. The victory margin in that contest was a bit misleading since the Golden Knights were outgained 452-333 in that contest. UCF relies heavily on their running game which has encompassed 62.5% of their offensive plays this season in addition to 57% of their total yards. That is a winning formula when playing with the lead. However, they showed vulnerability in the 2nd half of their 20-14 home loss to Louisville when their running game stalled, and their defense couldn’t get off the field. Louisville forced the Golden Knights out of their comfort zone evidenced by them forced to throw the ball on 47.2% of their offensive plays.
SMU is coming off a bye week that was preceded by 2 close losses against quality non-conference competition. They lost 42-34 to #17 TCU (4-0) and fell short in a 34-27 defeat at Maryland (4-1). Those losses evened the Mustangs record at 2-2. The SMU offense has been dynamic thus far while amassing 453 yards of total offense in all 4 of their contests while also averaging a healthy 38.5 points scored per game. If I may steal a boxer’s cliché, you most time than not have a puncher’s chance when betting on an underdog with high-powered offense. Additionally, SMU has faced the tougher competition compared to UCF and the Mustangs are coming off a bye week.
Any college football conference away underdog of 4.0 or less (SMU) who is coming off 2 consecutive losses, and is coming off a bye week, and they possess a win percentage of less than .545, resulted in those away underdogs going 32-9 ATS (78%) since 1980. Those underdogs also went 30-11 SU in those contests. If they were facing an opponent (UCF) coming off a SU win this college football ATS betting angle improves to 12-1 ATS (92.3%) and 11-2 SU. Give me SMU plus the points.
Game# 421-422
Play On: SMU +3.0 (5*)
Central Florida is coming off a 27-10 home win over Georgia Tech. The victory margin in that contest was a bit misleading since the Golden Knights were outgained 452-333 in that contest. UCF relies heavily on their running game which has encompassed 62.5% of their offensive plays this season in addition to 57% of their total yards. That is a winning formula when playing with the lead. However, they showed vulnerability in the 2nd half of their 20-14 home loss to Louisville when their running game stalled, and their defense couldn’t get off the field. Louisville forced the Golden Knights out of their comfort zone evidenced by them forced to throw the ball on 47.2% of their offensive plays.
SMU is coming off a bye week that was preceded by 2 close losses against quality non-conference competition. They lost 42-34 to #17 TCU (4-0) and fell short in a 34-27 defeat at Maryland (4-1). Those losses evened the Mustangs record at 2-2. The SMU offense has been dynamic thus far while amassing 453 yards of total offense in all 4 of their contests while also averaging a healthy 38.5 points scored per game. If I may steal a boxer’s cliché, you most time than not have a puncher’s chance when betting on an underdog with high-powered offense. Additionally, SMU has faced the tougher competition compared to UCF and the Mustangs are coming off a bye week.
Any college football conference away underdog of 4.0 or less (SMU) who is coming off 2 consecutive losses, and is coming off a bye week, and they possess a win percentage of less than .545, resulted in those away underdogs going 32-9 ATS (78%) since 1980. Those underdogs also went 30-11 SU in those contests. If they were facing an opponent (UCF) coming off a SU win this college football ATS betting angle improves to 12-1 ATS (92.3%) and 11-2 SU. Give me SMU plus the points.
