Phillies (Nola) @ Mets (Carrasco) 7:10 PM ET
Game# 957-958
Play On: Over 8.5 (5*)

The Mets Carlos Carrasco has been terrible in both of his home starts this season while recording an enormous 10.24 ERA. He lasted a combined total of 9 1/3 innings pitched in those outings an allowed 3 home runs. The Mets are coming off last night’s 2-0 home win over the Phillies. However, New York has played 5-0 to the over in their last 5 immediately following an over and there was a combined average of 13.2 runs scored per game. Conversely, the Phillies have played 3-0-2 to the over during their previous 5 immediately following an under and there was a combined average of 11.0 runs scored per game.

Aaron Nola has posted a lofty 6.05 ERA in 3 road starts this season while allowing 5 home runs in 19 1/3 innings pitched. As a matter of fact, Nola has surrendered 9 home runs in 47 2/3 innings pitched over his last 7 starts. Since the start of last season, Nola has pitched 11-2 to the over whenever the total was between 8.5 to 10.0 and there were a combined 12.4 runs scored per game. The Phillies bullpen has a shoddy 5.72 ERA/1.57 WHIP on the road this season.

Give me this game to go over the total.