Ross’ Sunday Night NFL Closer
(NFL) Miami vs. New England, 09/17/2023 8:20 PM, Score: 24 - 17
Point Spread: -2.50 | -115.00 Miami (Away)
Result: Win
Dolphins @ Patriots 8:20 PM ET
Game# 287-288
Play On: Dolphins -2.5

Tua and the Dolphins offense was magnificent in last Sunday’s 36-34 road win over the Chargers in a game they racked up 533 yards of total offense. New England is coming off a 25-20 home loss to Philadelphia in a game they failed to cover as a 4.0-point underdog. That makes New England 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 6.5 or less, and they were outscored by an average of 11.5 points per contest. Miami is 4-1 SU and 5-0 in their last 5 versus Miami. Their only SU loss occurred in last season regular season finale 23-21 at New England. That was a game that Miami’s 3rd string quarterback started due to Tua and Teddy Bridgewater being injured.

Since 2018, NFL away teams playing in a Game 2 like Miami who’s coming off an away win in their season opener, resulted in those teams going 7-0 SU&ATS. The average margin of victory in those 7 contests came by an average of 12.4 points per game. Give me the Dolphins minus points.