With starting QB (nominally) Gardner Minshew out for the season, the Raiders turn back (again) to Aidan O'Connell, who made ten starts during his rookie season, with the Raiders going 5-5 in those games -- including that Christmas Day win over the Chiefs last season at Arrowhead in the snow. O'Connell was crappy and completed less than 50 percent of his passes for just 62 yards. The Raiders won that game mainly because of two defensive scores that took place almost back to back…the chances of that happening again…
The Raiders are getting almost two touchdowns, and the total is a pretty low 42.5.
The Chiefs have averaged 22.3 points per game in their last three, regressing from the higher season average of 24.5. The Raiders are among the worst offenses in the league, scoring an anemic 18 PPG. In their first meeting this year in Vegas, the total was Chiefs 27 and Raiders 20. With Oconell starting, the Raiders lost 32-13 to Pittsburgh and 34 – 18 to Denver.
The Chiefs' defense gives up 19 PPG and is in the top 10, while the Raiders' defense allows a huge 28 PPG and ranks near the bottom of the league. The Chiefs remember the Xmas Day loss from last year. They will come out steaming in this game, played in relatively lovely weather—chance of light snow, no rain, or high winds predicted—and put up at least 31 points on that awful Raiders' defense. They will have to help their tackles deal with Mazz Crosby, though. The Raiders will get 13 to 17 and probably not cover, But I think the best play here goes over 42.5.