Calgary Stampeders vs Ottawa Redblacks Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday September 26 2026
Saturday's Stampeders vs Redblacks prediction is a quick rematch of one of the most dramatic finishes of the CFL season. Calgary and Ottawa meet at TD Place on September 26 with kickoff at 3:00 PM ET in Week 17, just one week after the Stampeders escaped with a 40-38 win on Rene Paredes' 62-yard field goal in the final seconds. Calgary is 6-8 and still chasing a playoff spot, while Ottawa is 0-13 and searching for its first win. The Stampeders are 2.5-point road favorites after briefly touching -3, Ottawa is +118 on the moneyline and the total sits at 62.5. Vernon Adams Jr.'s efficiency and an Ottawa defense that has allowed 479 points make Calgary and the Over the plays. For more weekend edges, check out our full slate of free CFL picks.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Calgary Stampeders -2.5 (-108)
- Total Pick: Over 62.5 (-110)
- Projected Final Score: Stampeders 36, Redblacks 31
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calgary Stampeders | -2.5 (-108) | Over 62.5 (-110) | |
| Ottawa Redblacks | +2.5 (-112) | +118 | Under 62.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Calgary | Ottawa | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | -2.5 (-108) | +2.5 (-112) | |
| 09/23 | -3 (-105) | +3 (-115) | |
| 09/21 | -2.5 (-108) | +2.5 (-112) | |
| 09/21 | -2.5 (-110) | +2.5 (-110) |
The spread opened at Calgary -2.5 with even juice and moved slightly toward the Stampeders, first to -108 and then up to -3. That move to a field goal didn't last. The number has dropped back to -2.5, with the juice at -108 on Calgary and -112 on Ottawa. The return to 2.5 is good news for Stampeders backers, since it means a Calgary win by exactly three points would cash instead of pushing. After a two-point game last week, that half point matters, and bettors should lock in -2.5 before the line climbs back to 3.
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/21 | 62.5 (-110) | 62.5 (-110) |
The total hasn't moved since it opened at 62.5 with even -110 juice on both sides. That stability gives Over bettors the opening number, which looks low compared with the 78 points these teams produced just a week ago. With no movement yet, there's no reason to wait, and the number could climb once more money comes in on a matchup with this much recent scoring.
Stampeders vs Redblacks Key Matchups and Game Preview
These teams just played a thriller. Calgary won 40-38 on September 19 when Rene Paredes hit a 62-yard field goal in the final seconds, dropping Ottawa to 0-13. The records say this should be a mismatch, but last week showed the gap is much smaller than it looks. Calgary still has meaningful playoff incentive, and Ottawa is motivated to finally get its first win. That sets up another competitive, high-scoring game.
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Stampeders Quarterback Vernon Adams Jr.
Vernon Adams Jr. gives Calgary one of the most efficient passing attacks in the league. He has thrown for 3,261 yards with 27 touchdowns and only five interceptions, averaging 8.8 yards per attempt. That combination of big plays and ball security is rare, and it's the biggest reason the Stampeders are favored on the road. His top target is Jalen Philpot, who has 65 catches for 915 yards and seven touchdowns. Against an Ottawa defense that has struggled all season, Adams and Philpot should have plenty of chances to connect.
CGY Backfield After the Dedrick Mills Injury
Calgary's running game faces a major change. Dedrick Mills leads the team with 943 rushing yards, but he has landed on the six-game injured list. Deonta McMahon stepped into the lead role against Ottawa and produced right away, running for 102 yards on 15 carries and finishing with 129 yards from scrimmage. That kind of immediate production gives the Stampeders confidence that their ground game can stay effective without Mills, and it keeps Ottawa's defense from focusing only on Adams.
Redblacks Found Life With McLeod Bethel-Thompson
Ottawa's offense looked much better in the first meeting. McLeod Bethel-Thompson threw for 379 yards and five touchdowns, nearly leading the Redblacks to their first win. That performance gives Ottawa a reason to stay aggressive through the air. The Redblacks have also used Jake Maier extensively this season, and he has 3,139 passing yards and 14 touchdowns. But Bethel-Thompson's big day against this same Calgary defense makes him the key figure on Ottawa's side of the ball.
Ottawa Receiver Justin Hardy
Justin Hardy continues to lead the Ottawa receiving corps with 925 yards and five touchdowns. He is the Redblacks' most reliable target, and his production gives Bethel-Thompson a dependable option. If Ottawa's passing game picks up where it left off last week, Hardy will be at the center of it, and that helps the Over.
OTT Defense Continues to Struggle
The larger concern for Ottawa is its defense. The Redblacks have allowed 479 points through 13 games, which works out to nearly 37 points per game. Calgary, meanwhile, has scored 490 points through 14 games, averaging 35 per game. Those numbers line up perfectly for the Stampeders' offense. Adams' efficiency and McMahon's running should give Calgary another big scoring day against a defense that hasn't been able to slow opponents down.
Calgary Playoff Push
Motivation matters here. Calgary still has meaningful playoff incentive at 6-8, and a loss to a winless team would be a major setback. Ottawa is playing for pride and its first victory. Both teams have reasons to compete hard, but the Stampeders have more at stake, and that urgency should help them avoid another last-second finish.
Why the Stampeders Can Cover on the Road
The spread is only 2.5 points, which means Calgary just needs to win by a field goal. The Stampeders have the more efficient quarterback, better offensive depth and a running back who produced right away when given the lead role. Ottawa showed it can score, but its defense remains a major weakness. Last week's game was decided by two points on a 62-yard kick, and Calgary should be able to build a slightly larger cushion this time.
CGY vs OTT Betting Trends
Stampeders Trends
- Calgary enters Week 17 at 6-8.
- The Stampeders beat Ottawa 40-38 on September 19.
- Rene Paredes hit a 62-yard field goal in the final seconds to win that game.
- Calgary has scored 490 points through 14 games.
- Vernon Adams Jr. has 27 touchdowns and only five interceptions.
- Calgary opened at -2.5, moved to -3 and returned to -2.5.
Redblacks Trends
- Ottawa enters Week 17 at 0-13.
- The Redblacks lost to Calgary 40-38 last week.
- Ottawa has allowed 479 points through 13 games.
- McLeod Bethel-Thompson threw for 379 yards and five touchdowns in the first meeting.
- Justin Hardy leads the Redblacks with 925 receiving yards.
- Ottawa is +118 on the moneyline.
CGY vs OTT Key Injuries and Things To Know
Calgary Injury Report
- Dedrick Mills – Six-game injured list (team-leading 943 rushing yards)
- Deonta McMahon – Expected to lead the backfield after a 102-yard rushing performance against Ottawa
Ottawa Injury Report
The current CFL injury report had not yet listed finalized practice statuses for Ottawa when checked, so additional late-week injury information is worth monitoring before kickoff.
Things To Know About the Stampeders and Redblacks
The loss of Dedrick Mills is the most significant injury news in this game. He leads Calgary with 943 rushing yards, and his absence would normally be a major concern. But Deonta McMahon's 129 yards from scrimmage in the first meeting show the Stampeders have a capable replacement who can keep the ground game working.
Finalized practice statuses had not been posted for either team when checked, so bettors should watch for late-week updates. The quarterback situation for Ottawa is also worth tracking. Bethel-Thompson's big game makes him the likely choice, but the Redblacks have used Maier extensively this season, and any change could affect how aggressive Ottawa is through the air.
Stampeders vs Redblacks Side and Over/Under Picks
CGY Spread Pick
The spread pick is Calgary Stampeders -2.5 (-108). Adams' efficiency, Calgary's deeper offense and McMahon's immediate production give the Stampeders the more dependable profile. Ottawa's defense has allowed nearly 37 points per game, and Calgary scores 35 per game, so the Stampeders should score plenty again.
The spread briefly moved to -3 before returning to -2.5, so bettors can now take Calgary without worrying about a push on a three-point win. The Redblacks showed they can compete, but Calgary's playoff push and offensive edge should be enough to win by a field goal or more.
Over Pick for Calgary at Ottawa
The total pick is Over 62.5 (-110). These teams combined for 78 points just last week, clearing this total by more than two touchdowns. Calgary averages 35 points per game, and Ottawa allows nearly 37. If the Stampeders score in the mid-30s again, the Redblacks only need to reach the high 20s to push this over.
Ottawa has shown it can do that. Bethel-Thompson threw five touchdowns in the first meeting, and Hardy gives him a reliable target. With two offenses that scored easily a week ago and a defense that has struggled all season, a final in the high 60s fits this matchup well.
Stampeders vs Redblacks Final Score Prediction
- Projected Final Score: Stampeders 36, Redblacks 31
- Winner: Calgary Stampeders
- Spread: Stampeders -2.5 (-108) covers
- Total: 67 points, Over 62.5 hits
Adams should pick apart the Ottawa defense again, with Philpot making big plays and McMahon keeping the Redblacks honest on the ground. Bethel-Thompson and Hardy keep Ottawa in the game, and the Redblacks trade scores with Calgary for much of the afternoon. But the Stampeders' offensive depth and playoff urgency help them pull ahead late. A 36-31 Calgary win covers the spread and pushes the total well over 62.5.
How to Wager On Stampeders vs Redblacks
This rematch rewards bettors who back the more efficient offense in what should be another shootout. Calgary -2.5 at -108 is the best available number, since the line has already touched 3 and could return there. The Stampeders only need to win by a field goal, and Adams gives them the steadier quarterback play.
The Over 62.5 fits the same game script, with Calgary scoring freely against a porous Ottawa defense and the Redblacks keeping pace through the air. Bettors who like both plays can pair Calgary -2.5 with the Over in a same-game parlay, since a high-scoring Stampeders win helps both legs. Check the finalized injury report before the 3:00 PM ET kickoff, especially for Ottawa's quarterback situation.
For more ways to find value on games like this one, check out our breakdown of the top AI picks platforms. You can also read our Dimers review for simulation-based projections, or explore our Oddible review to see how another data-driven tool can help you spot edges across the CFL board.
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