Saskatchewan Roughriders vs BC Lions Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 31 2026
Saskatchewan beat BC in last year’s Western Final. And I’m sure somebody in Regina is going to bring that up about 50 times before kickoff Saturday.
Fair enough. But this isn’t last year’s team, and this isn’t last year’s game.
BC won the season series, beat Saskatchewan in both meetings after June, and gets this playoff game at home. The Lions are favored by 6.5 points. That’s a decent-sized spread for a playoff game, but I think BC has earned it.
The Roughriders visit Save-On-Foods Field at BC Place in Vancouver on Saturday, October 31, for a 4:30 PM ET kickoff. The winner heads to Edmonton for the Western Final. I’m backing the Lions, and I think this game has enough offense to push the total higher. Get ready for all the CFL action with our free CFL picks.
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Saskatchewan Roughriders Have to Find a Way to Slow Rourke
Saskatchewan knows how to win playoff games. The Roughriders beat BC 24-21 in last year’s Western Final, and Trevor Harris has plenty of experience in these situations. That’s the reason I’m not expecting the Riders to get blown off the field. They know what this game means.
But look at the three meetings this season. Saskatchewan won the first one 31-27, then lost 30-16 and 31-24. BC got better at handling the Riders as the year went on. Harris actually completed 75.7 percent of his passes against the Lions, throwing for 1,070 yards and five touchdowns across those three games. So moving the ball hasn’t been impossible. Finishing drives and keeping BC from answering have been the bigger problems.
KeeSean Johnson caught 24 passes for 329 yards in the season series. He’s been a reliable target, and Saskatchewan will need that again. A.J. Ouellette is also important because the Riders can’t let this become a game where Harris throws on every down. Ouellette ran for 113 yards in last year’s Western Final against BC. The injury report has some concerns, though. James Letcher Jr., Nelson Lokombo and Lake Korte-Moore are out, while a couple of defensive players remain questionable. That’s not ideal against BC’s offense.
BC Lions Have the Better Quarterback Matchup
BC has reached the playoffs for the fifth straight season, and the Lions are hosting a postseason game for the second consecutive year. This is a team that expects to be here. They also won the season series against Saskatchewan, and that matters more to me than what happened in last year’s Western Final.
Nathan Rourke was excellent against the Riders this season. He completed 73.1 percent of his passes, threw for 1,060 yards and accounted for seven touchdowns, including one on the ground. He also ran for 115 yards in the three meetings. That’s the part Saskatchewan has to worry about. You can cover the receivers, get decent pressure and still watch Rourke take off for a first down.
BC has two running backs who can make life difficult. Zander Horvath and James Butler give the Lions different ways to attack, and Butler is listed as available after dealing with a shoulder problem. Jevon Cottoy caught 19 passes for 257 yards and two touchdowns against Saskatchewan this season. That gives Rourke another dependable option. The Lions have injuries on the defensive line, including Levi Bell and T.J. Burke, but the offense is the reason I like them here.
Saskatchewan Roughriders vs BC Lions Picks and Predictions
BC Lions -6.5
I’m taking BC minus 6.5. Saskatchewan can absolutely keep this close. Harris has already shown he can move the ball against the Lions, and playoff football has a way of making favorites uncomfortable. But BC won the last two meetings, Rourke has been a problem for Saskatchewan, and the Lions have the home field. The Riders need to defend both the pass and the quarterback run. That’s a lot to handle. I think BC gets ahead in the second half and wins by more than a touchdown.
Over 52.5 Points — Target Total
I’d look Over 52.5 if the market offers something in that range. The three regular-season meetings produced 58, 46 and 55 points. Two of the three cleared this target, and both quarterbacks moved the ball well during the season series. The concern is playoff football becoming more conservative, especially if Saskatchewan wants to control the clock with Ouellette. But Rourke can create explosive plays, and Harris has enough experience to answer. I can see BC winning 32-24.
Final Picks: BC Lions -6.5 and Over 52.5 Points (target total)
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