Toronto Argonauts vs Ottawa Redblacks Picks and Predictions for Friday October 16 2026
The Toronto Argonauts have one of the CFL’s most productive passing attacks. They’ve also managed to lose seven games, which tells you something about how little all those yards mean when a team can’t finish the job. Toronto gets another opportunity to sort things out Friday, October 16, when it visits the winless Ottawa Redblacks at TD Place Stadium in Ottawa, Ontario. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 PM EDT, with TSN handling Canadian television coverage and CFL+ available in the United States. Temperatures should be around 43 degrees, with showers possible during the evening. At the time of this writing, the odds had not been released. Ottawa’s defense has been getting pushed around all season, and Toronto has the offensive weapons to make this another ugly night for the home team. Whether the Argonauts can actually put four good quarters together is a different question. Get ready for more Canadian football action with our free CFL picks.
Toronto Argonauts Have Plenty of Offense but Not Enough Discipline
Toronto is 9-7 overall and 5-6 on the road. That second number stands out more to me than the first. A team with playoff aspirations shouldn’t have this much trouble winning away from home, particularly with the offensive talent Toronto possesses. The Argonauts had won four straight before losing 24-17 to BC on October 3, and that defeat was entirely avoidable. They had two chances to score from the one-yard line late in the game. Neither worked. You can point to BC’s defense, but Toronto deserves plenty of criticism for failing to execute something that basic. The Argonauts have now had a bye week to address those shortcomings. Maybe the extra preparation makes a difference. Ottawa certainly offers an easier assignment than BC, although the Redblacks nearly upset Toronto back in September. The Argonauts escaped that meeting 26-23 after entering as 9.5-point favorites. I wouldn’t dismiss that result just because Ottawa has continued losing.
There’s no shortage of yardage when Toronto has the football. The Argonauts average 411.6 yards per game, including a league-leading 337.5 through the air. Those figures look terrific until you notice Toronto is scoring 28.9 points per contest. That’s respectable production, but I’d expect more from an offense throwing for nearly 340 yards every week. Too many mistakes have kept the Argonauts from turning their yardage advantage into something more substantial. The running game hasn’t helped. Toronto averages 74.1 rushing yards, and that makes the offense fairly predictable when opponents manage to take away the big passing plays. Ottawa probably won’t have much success doing that. The Redblacks have been dreadful against opposing offenses, and Toronto should have plenty of opportunities to attack their secondary. Defensively, the Argonauts have allowed 28.4 points per game, but their latest performance deserves credit. BC failed to score an offensive touchdown against Toronto. That’s not something I’d overlook, especially considering how many problems Ottawa has had moving the football consistently.
Chad Kelly has thrown for 5,067 yards and 33 touchdowns. Nobody can question his ability to move an offense. His decision-making is another story, and those 24 interceptions are impossible to ignore. Kelly has thrown nearly as many picks as some teams surrender over multiple seasons. That’s a problem when you’re trying to trust Toronto against the spread. Nick Arbuckle stepped in against BC and completed 27 of 33 passes for 292 yards and two scores, but he also threw two interceptions. Kelly was a full participant in Monday’s practice despite his right-hand injury, so his availability looks more encouraging than it did previously. Toronto’s receivers have done their part. Damonte Coxie has 1,317 yards, while David Ungerer III has caught 81 passes for 1,066 yards and seven touchdowns. Ungerer was especially impressive against BC, hauling in 12 passes for 124 yards. Those two should give Ottawa’s secondary problems, regardless of which quarterback starts. Offensive lineman Brandon Kemp was limited Monday with a leg injury, while receiver Jake Herslow and defensive back Bubba Bolden were also limited. I’d pay attention to Kemp’s status after watching Toronto struggle to get a yard when it mattered most against BC.
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Ottawa Redblacks Can’t Keep Asking Their Offense to Rescue the Defense
The Redblacks are 0-16, and they’ve lost all eight games at TD Place. Another season is nearly finished, and Ottawa still hasn’t given its fans a victory to celebrate. Last Friday’s 41-20 loss to BC looked familiar. The Redblacks had some decent moments, even getting within three points during the second half, before everything fell apart. BC ended up scoring 41, which is pretty much what opposing offenses have come to expect against Ottawa. The Redblacks also lost 34-16 to Hamilton on October 2. That’s 75 points surrendered over two games, and neither contest was particularly competitive by the final whistle. There have been occasional exceptions. Ottawa nearly beat Toronto 26-23 in September and took Calgary to the wire in a 40-38 defeat. Those performances prove the Redblacks can score and compete when things break their way. They don’t prove Ottawa can win. Sixteen losses have taken care of that argument.
Ottawa’s defense has surrendered 37.2 points and 470.5 yards per game through its first 15 contests. Think about what that means for an opposing offensive coordinator. You don’t have to build an especially complicated game plan when a defense is giving up that much ground. Opponents have averaged 131.4 rushing yards against Ottawa, so the Redblacks aren’t even forcing teams to beat them through the air. That should be good news for a Toronto offense that has struggled to establish its running game. On the other side, Ottawa averages just 23.3 points per contest. The Redblacks have rushed for 862 yards through 16 games, which works out to fewer than 54 yards per outing. It’s hard to sustain drives when the defense knows you’re going to throw. Ottawa has occasionally produced enough passing yardage to stay competitive, but the lack of balance has become a serious handicap. Against Toronto, the Redblacks need their defense to contribute something. Judging by what we’ve seen so far, that’s asking an awful lot.
Justin Hardy has been one of the few reasons to watch Ottawa’s offense this season. The veteran receiver has caught 89 passes for 1,123 yards and six touchdowns, impressive production on a team that has struggled almost everywhere else. Jake Maier has thrown for 3,139 yards with 14 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. McLeod Bethel-Thompson has added 1,553 passing yards and nine scores, but Ottawa still hasn’t found enough consistency at quarterback. The more pressing concern this week might be the defensive line. Jessie Evans, Charlie Parks and Blessman Ta’ala all missed Monday’s practice with injuries. Dennis Briggs Jr. and Daniel Okpoko were limited, giving Ottawa five defensive linemen on the initial injury report. CJ Reavis was also limited with a hamstring issue, while running back Mario Anderson Jr. was limited because of a head injury. Those aren’t encouraging developments for a defense preparing to face Toronto’s passing attack. The Redblacks were already having trouble generating stops with their regular personnel. Losing additional contributors up front could leave the secondary exposed even longer.
Toronto Argonauts vs Ottawa Redblacks Picks and Predictions
Moneyline or Spread Pick: Toronto Argonauts -6.5 or Better
Toronto shouldn’t need anything close to its best performance to win this game. Ottawa has allowed opponents to score almost at will, and now the Redblacks are dealing with several injuries along their defensive front. That’s a particularly bad situation against an Argonauts offense averaging more than 400 yards. I’d expect Toronto to attack through the air early, especially with Coxie and Ungerer presenting difficult assignments for Ottawa’s secondary. The only reason I’m putting a limit on the spread is Toronto’s own carelessness. Twenty-four interceptions from Kelly and another two from Arbuckle against BC make it difficult to trust the Argonauts with a large number. Ottawa kept the September meeting within three points, and another sloppy Toronto performance could produce something similar. I don’t expect it this time. The Redblacks have been beaten too often and too badly for me to give them the benefit of the doubt. Toronto gets my backing at -6.5 or better if that line becomes available. Anything substantially higher starts becoming a wager on Toronto’s discipline, and I haven’t seen enough of that.
Total Pick: Under 55.5 Points
Ottawa’s defense is the obvious argument against betting the under. A team allowing more than 37 points per game can wreck a total all by itself, and Toronto certainly has the receivers to pile up touchdowns. But I’m not convinced Ottawa can contribute enough to make this a high-scoring contest. The Redblacks managed 16 points against Hamilton and 20 against BC in their last two games. Toronto’s defense just held BC without an offensive touchdown, which suggests the Argonauts might be capable of keeping Ottawa in the teens. Toronto has also gone under the posted total in four consecutive games. I wouldn’t make a bet based solely on that trend, but it fits with an offense that moves the football without always finishing drives. The weather might add another obstacle, with chilly temperatures and possible rain in Ottawa. A couple of interceptions could create short fields and ruin the under, particularly against Ottawa’s defense. That’s the risk I’m willing to accept. Something in the neighborhood of a 31-17 Toronto victory wouldn’t surprise me, and that’s comfortably below the proposed number. I’ll take under 55.5 if the market offers it.
Final Picks: Toronto Argonauts -6.5 or Better and Under 55.5 Points
This article was completed on October 12, 2026. Betting lines, injuries, starting lineups and weather conditions may change before kickoff. The recommended spread and total are conditional betting targets rather than verified sportsbook odds.
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