Toronto Argonauts vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday September 25 2026
The Toronto Argonauts and Winnipeg Blue Bombers kick off Week 17 on Friday night at Princess Auto Stadium, and this Argonauts vs Blue Bombers prediction carries real playoff weight for both sides. Toronto enters at 8-6 after clinching a playoff spot and a home playoff date with last week's win over West-leading Edmonton, while Winnipeg sits at 7-6 and is fighting to strengthen its own position. The Bombers are coming off a bye and are slight home favorites, but the injury report tells a very different story, with Zach Collaros and Brady Oliveira both missing practice early in the week. Meanwhile, Chad Kelly is putting together a monster season for the Argonauts. With a spread under a field goal and a total that has already moved, there is value on the board for bettors willing to dig in. For more weekly edges, check out our full slate of free CFL picks, then read on for the complete breakdown of the spread, total and projected final score.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Toronto Argonauts +1.5 (-115)
- Total Pick: Over 58.5 (-110)
- Projected Final Score: Argonauts 32, Blue Bombers 28
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Argonauts | +1.5 (-115) | -104 | Over 58.5 (-108) |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | -1.5 (-105) | -115 | Under 58.5 (-112) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Toronto | Winnipeg | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/20 | +1.5 -110 | -1.5 -110 | - |
The spread opened with Winnipeg as a 1.5-point home favorite and standard -110 juice on both sides, and the number itself has not moved. What has changed is the price. Toronto is now priced at +1.5 -115 while Winnipeg sits at -1.5 -105, meaning the Argonauts have become the slightly more expensive side. That small shift in juice toward Toronto lines up with the injury news surrounding Winnipeg's quarterback and top running back.
The moneyline tells a similar story. With Winnipeg at -115 and Toronto at -104, this game is priced very close to a coin flip. For bettors who like the Argonauts, the +1.5 adds a small but useful cushion in a game that could come down to a single score.
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/21 | 58.5 -108 | 58.5 -112 | - |
| 09/21 | 58.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | - |
| 09/20 | 59.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | - |
The total opened at 59.5 and dropped a full point to 58.5. Since then, the Under has become the slightly favored side at -112, while the Over has eased to -108. The downward move likely reflects the uncertainty around Winnipeg's offense, with Collaros and Oliveira both missing practice.
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For Over bettors, that drop creates a better number. Getting a full point off the opener and a slightly cheaper price on the Over at -108 makes it an attractive entry point, especially with a Toronto offense that has been scoring at a high level all season.
Key Matchups and Game Preview: Argonauts vs Blue Bombers
This matchup pits a red-hot Toronto team against a Winnipeg side dealing with significant injury uncertainty. The Argonauts have won six of their last eight games and are playing their best football of the season, while the Blue Bombers are hoping a bye week has given their key players enough time to recover.
Argonauts QB Chad Kelly Driving the Offense
Chad Kelly has been the engine of the Toronto offense, throwing for 4,777 yards with 31 touchdowns while completing 70.9% of his passes. That combination of volume and accuracy makes him one of the most productive quarterbacks in the league. Kelly has also added 171 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns, giving the Argonauts an extra dimension when plays break down. When a quarterback is playing at this level, his team is capable of scoring against anyone, and that is a big reason to back both Toronto and the Over.
Toronto Receiving Corps Brings Balance
Kelly's receiving corps has provided plenty of balance. Damonte Coxie leads the group with 1,111 yards and six touchdowns, David Ungerer III has added 918 yards and six scores, Tyler Kahmann has recorded 915 yards and seven touchdowns, and Kevin Mital has contributed 813 yards. Having four receivers with more than 800 yards makes Toronto extremely difficult to defend, since there is no single target a defense can take away. Samuel Hicks adds a rushing element with 383 yards on 65 carries, keeping defenses honest.
Blue Bombers Offense Built Around Oliveira
Winnipeg's offense is built more heavily around Brady Oliveira, who has rushed for 1,084 yards at 6.1 yards per carry. He is the centerpiece of the Bombers attack, and his efficiency on the ground allows Winnipeg to control the game. However, his status is important after he missed Monday's practice with an ankle injury. If Oliveira is absent or limited, Winnipeg loses its most reliable offensive weapon.
Winnipeg Quarterback Uncertainty
Zach Collaros did not practice because of a head injury. When available, he has thrown for 2,204 yards with 11 touchdowns and six interceptions. Winnipeg does have an experienced alternative in Dru Brown, who has gone 2-2 in four starts this season. Brown gives the Bombers a capable fallback, but the combination of quarterback uncertainty and a possible limitation for Oliveira creates real questions about how consistent Winnipeg's offense can be. Nic Demski and Stanley Bryant were also among the Bombers notable non-participants.
Argonauts Momentum vs Bombers Bye Week
The schedule setup favors Winnipeg somewhat, as the Bombers are coming off a bye while Toronto is traveling west on a short week. That rest advantage is worth noting. However, the quarterback uncertainty and possible absence or limitation of Oliveira tilt the matchup back toward the visitors. Toronto's week-to-week consistency and its recent run of six wins in eight games give the Argonauts the edge in form.
Betting Trends: TOR vs WPG
- Toronto enters at 8-6, while Winnipeg sits at 7-6.
- The Argonauts have won six of their last eight games.
- Toronto clinched a playoff spot and a home playoff date with last week's win over Edmonton.
- Toronto has scored 415 points and allowed 403 this season.
- Winnipeg has scored 345 points and allowed 352.
- The Blue Bombers are 4-4 at home, while the Argonauts are 4-6 on the road.
- Winnipeg is coming off a bye, while Toronto is traveling west on a short week.
- The total dropped from 59.5 to 58.5.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: TOR vs WPG
Argonauts Things To Know
- Chad Kelly: 4,777 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and a 70.9% completion rate.
- Playoff Status: Toronto has clinched a playoff spot and a home playoff date.
- Schedule: The Argonauts are traveling west on a short week.
Toronto's biggest challenge is the short week and the travel. However, with a playoff spot already secured and its offense firing on all cylinders, the Argonauts enter this game with confidence and momentum.
Blue Bombers Injury Report
- Zach Collaros: Quarterback, did not practice (head injury)
- Brady Oliveira: Running back, missed Monday's practice (ankle injury)
- Nic Demski: Did not practice
- Stanley Bryant: Did not practice
- Dru Brown: Quarterback, available as an alternative (2-2 in four starts)
Winnipeg's injury report is the most important factor in this game. Collaros and Oliveira are the two most important pieces of the Bombers offense, and both missed practice early in the week. Monitoring their status leading up to kickoff is essential, since their availability could shift both the spread and the total.
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers Side and Over/Under Picks
TOR +1.5 Spread Pick
Toronto +1.5 at -115 is the play. Kelly is playing at a high level, the Argonauts have shown greater week-to-week consistency recently, and Winnipeg is dealing with uncertainty at both quarterback and running back. The Bombers have the rest advantage, but the injury concerns outweigh that edge. With the moneyline nearly even, taking the extra 1.5 points provides valuable protection in a game likely to be decided by a single score.
Over 58.5 in Winnipeg
The Over 58.5 at -110 benefits from the full-point drop in the total. Toronto has scored 415 points this season, and Kelly's deep receiving corps can generate explosive plays at any time. Winnipeg has the ability to answer, particularly if Oliveira is available, and Dru Brown has shown he can lead the offense if needed. If both offenses can generate explosive plays, the total should go over, and the projected 32-28 final lands at 60 points.
- Spread Pick: Toronto Argonauts +1.5 (-115)
- Total Pick: Over 58.5 (-110)
Final Score Prediction
Expect a high-energy game with playoff implications on the line. Kelly should find success spreading the ball to Coxie, Ungerer, Kahmann and Mital, keeping the Winnipeg defense on its heels. The Bombers will lean on whatever combination of Collaros, Brown and Oliveira is available, and they should put up enough points to keep it close. In the end, Toronto's offensive consistency makes the difference in a tight road win.
- Projected Final Score: Argonauts 32, Blue Bombers 28
- Spread Result: Argonauts +1.5 cover
- Total Result: Over 58.5 cashes with 60 total points
How to Wager On Argonauts vs Blue Bombers
The best approach is to pair Toronto +1.5 with the Over 58.5. Both picks rely on Kelly and the Argonauts offense continuing to produce, and a 32-28 type of result cashes both. With the moneyline sitting at -104 for Toronto, bettors who believe in an outright win can also consider the moneyline for a slightly better return than the spread.
The injury report is the key variable to watch before placing your wager. If Collaros and Oliveira are ruled out, the spread could move toward Toronto, so locking in +1.5 early may be the smart play. On the other hand, their absence could also push the total lower, which would create an even better Over number. Keep a close eye on practice updates throughout the week and compare prices across sportsbooks.
If you want to compare this handicap with model-driven projections, explore our breakdown of the top AI picks platforms. You can also read our full Dimers review to see how its simulations evaluate football spreads and totals, along with our Oddible review for another tool that can help you find value before placing your wager on Argonauts vs Blue Bombers.
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