Arizona vs Washington St. Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday September 26 2026
Saturday's Arizona vs Washington State prediction takes us back to an old Pac-12 rivalry in Pullman, and the last time the Wildcats visited Martin Stadium, it wasn't close. Arizona rolled to a 44-6 win in 2023, and quarterback Noah Fifita threw for 342 yards that day. Fifita is back and coming off one of the best games of his career, while Washington State's offense ranks last in the nation in total offense against FBS competition. The spread has dropped from Arizona -13.5 to -10, and the total sits at 48.5. With a big quarterback gap and a Cougar offense that has barely moved the ball against quality opponents, the Wildcats are the side, and the Under is the total play. For more weekend edges across the board, check out our full slate of college football predictions.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Arizona -10 (-115)
- Total Pick: Under 48.5 (-110)
- Projected Final Score: Arizona 31, Washington State 10
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Wildcats | -10 (-115) | Over 48.5 (-110) |
| Washington State Cougars | +10 (-105) | Under 48.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Arizona | Washington State | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/23 | -10 (-115) | +10 (-105) | WSU 100% |
| 09/21 | -10 (-112) | +10 (-108) | |
| 09/21 | -10 (-110) | +10 (-110) | |
| 09/21 | -10 (-108) | +10 (-112) | |
| 09/21 | -10 (-110) | +10 (-110) | |
| 09/21 | -10 (-105) | +10 (-115) | |
| 09/21 | -10 (-108) | +10 (-112) | |
| 09/21 | -10 (-110) | +10 (-110) | |
| 09/20 | -10.5 (-108) | +10.5 (-112) | |
| 09/20 | -11.5 (-108) | +11.5 (-112) | |
| 09/20 | -11.5 (-112) | +11.5 (-108) | |
| 09/20 | -12.5 (-105) | +12.5 (-115) | |
| 09/20 | -13.5 (-110) | +13.5 (-110) |
The spread saw a big early move. Arizona opened as a 13.5-point favorite, and the number fell quickly on the first day of betting, dropping to -12.5, then -11.5 and -10.5 before settling at -10. That is a 3.5-point drop toward Washington State, and it has held at 10 ever since, with the juice moving back and forth between -105 and -115.
The latest update shows 100% of the money on Washington State, yet the juice has moved toward Arizona, from -112 to -115. Even with Cougar money coming in, the book hasn't pushed the number below 10. For Wildcats backers, that is good news: you are getting Arizona 3.5 points cheaper than the opener, and the market appears to have found a floor at a key number.
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/22 | 48.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | |
| 09/21 | 48.5 (-108) | 48.5 (-112) | |
| 09/21 | 47.5 (-118) | 47.5 (-102) | |
| 09/21 | 47.5 (-112) | 47.5 (-108) | |
| 09/21 | 47.5 (-108) | 47.5 (-112) | |
| 09/20 | 47.5 (-112) | 47.5 (-108) | |
| 09/20 | 47.5 (-118) | 47.5 (-102) | |
| 09/20 | 48.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) |
The total has come full circle. It opened at 48.5, dropped quickly to 47.5, and stayed there through several small price changes. Over bettors eventually pushed the juice to -118 at 47.5, and the book moved the number back to 48.5, where it now sits at even -110. The movement is a gift for Under bettors, who now get a full point more than the 47.5 that was available for most of the first two days. Given how little Washington State has done offensively against quality opponents, the Under at 48.5 is a better number than the market offered earlier.
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Arizona vs Washington State Key Matchups and Game Preview
Washington State finally got a win last week against Duquesne, an overmatched FCS opponent from Pittsburgh, after doing almost nothing with the ball in the Apple Cup against Washington and in a trip to Kansas State. Now the Cougars return to real competition against Arizona, and the history in Pullman is not encouraging. In their last visit to the Palouse before moving to the Big XII, the Wildcats beat Washington State 44-6 in 2023.
Arizona Quarterback Noah Fifita Is Rolling
Noah Fifita is still leading the Arizona offense, and he knows this stadium well. He threw for 342 yards the last time he played at Martin Stadium, and he is coming off maybe the best game of his long career in Tucson. Last Saturday against Northern Illinois, Fifita nearly threw a perfect game, completing 31 of 34 passes for 325 yards and four touchdowns. A quarterback that sharp and that experienced is a major problem for a Washington State team that has struggled to keep pace with quality opponents.
Washington State Offense Ranks Dead Last
The Cougars' offense is the biggest concern in this matchup. Kirby Moore's first Washington State team ranks last in the nation in total offense at 204 yards per game, and that figure doesn't include the win over Duquesne. Against Washington and Kansas State, the Cougars simply couldn't move the ball. If Arizona scores even a few times, it's hard to see this offense keeping up.
WSU Protection Problems
Big Sky transfer quarterback Caden Pinnick has rarely had time to throw. Against Washington and Kansas State, he spent most of his time dinking and dunking, with no chance to look downfield, and passed for barely 200 yards across those two losses combined. When a quarterback is under that much pressure, the offense can't create big plays or sustain drives. Unless the protection improves sharply, Pinnick will face the same problems against an Arizona team that should be able to get after him.
Washington State Run Game Searching for Answers
The Cougars' running game has been just as limited. Pinnick scrambling out of trouble was their most effective running play in the first two games. Running back Kirby Voorhes gained only 62 combined rushing yards against Washington and Kansas State. He found more room against Duquesne and broke off a couple of touchdown runs, including a 58-yarder that stands as one of the few big plays Moore's offense has produced all season. But that came against a much weaker opponent, and Arizona is a big step up.
Arizona Bounced Back After BYU
The Wildcats' easy win over Northern Illinois suggests Brent Brennan's team has moved past its bitter loss at BYU the week before, a game that included some questionable calls from the officials. Arizona responded with a clean, dominant performance, and that kind of bounce-back shows a focused team. The Wildcats come into Pullman playing their best football of the season on offense.
ARIZ Big XII Title Hopes
Arizona still believes it can make noise in the conference race. Big XII sources indicate the Wildcats think they have a real shot at a return trip to face BYU in the league title game in Arlington. The conference race may be opening up, since defending champion Texas Tech hasn't looked like the dominant team it was last season. With those goals in mind, Arizona has every reason to stay focused against Washington State.
Why Arizona Can Cover on the Road
Laying 10 points on the road requires a clear edge, and Arizona has one at the most important position. Fifita is playing at a high level, and Washington State's offense has barely functioned against real competition. The Wildcats beat the Cougars by 38 points in their last trip to Pullman. Even if this game is closer than that, Arizona's offense should produce enough points while the Washington State attack struggles to find the end zone. A two- or three-touchdown win is well within reach.
ARIZ vs WSU Betting Trends
Arizona Trends
- Arizona beat Washington State 44-6 in its last trip to Pullman in 2023.
- Noah Fifita threw for 342 yards in that 2023 game at Martin Stadium.
- Fifita completed 31 of 34 passes for 325 yards and four touchdowns against Northern Illinois.
- The Wildcats bounced back from a loss at BYU with an easy win last Saturday.
- Arizona opened as a 13.5-point favorite and is now -10.
Washington State Trends
- Washington State ranks last nationally in total offense at 204 yards per game, excluding the Duquesne game.
- The Cougars lost to Washington and Kansas State.
- Washington State beat FCS opponent Duquesne last week.
- Caden Pinnick passed for barely 200 yards across the losses to Washington and Kansas State.
- Kirby Voorhes rushed for 62 combined yards against Washington and Kansas State.
- The Cougars have drawn 100% of the recent spread money.
ARIZ vs WSU Key Injuries and Things To Know
Wildcats Roster Notes
The key personnel storyline for Arizona is at quarterback, where Noah Fifita brings experience and elite recent form. He has already had success in Pullman, and his near-perfect outing against Northern Illinois shows he is in rhythm heading into this matchup. Brent Brennan's team also appears to have moved past the frustration of the BYU loss.
Cougars Roster Notes
For Washington State, the main storylines are the protection in front of Caden Pinnick and the running game. Pinnick has been under constant pressure against quality opponents, and Kirby Voorhes has struggled to find room against FBS defenses. Voorhes' breakout against Duquesne, including his 58-yard touchdown run, came against much weaker competition.
Things To Know Before Arizona Visits Pullman
This game comes down to the gap between the two offenses. Arizona has an experienced quarterback playing at his best, while Washington State has one of the least productive offenses in the country against real competition. The Cougars looked better against Duquesne, but that game tells us very little about how they will handle a Big XII opponent with conference title hopes.
The line movement is also worth noting. The spread dropped from 13.5 to 10, and recent money has been on Washington State. But the number has held at 10 with the juice moving toward Arizona. That suggests the market is comfortable with the Wildcats at this price, and bettors are getting a much better number than the opener.
Arizona vs Washington State Side and Over/Under Picks
ARIZ Spread Pick
The spread pick is Arizona -10 (-115). The Wildcats have the far better quarterback, a focused team coming off a strong bounce-back win and a history of dominating this matchup in Pullman. Washington State's offense ranks last in the nation against FBS competition, and Pinnick has had almost no time to throw against quality defenses.
The line has dropped 3.5 points from the opener, which gives Arizona bettors real value. At -10, the Wildcats need to win by 11 or more. If Fifita plays anywhere close to his recent level, Arizona should score enough to create separation, and Washington State hasn't shown it can keep pace in a game like this.
Under Pick for ARIZ vs WSU
The total pick is Under 48.5 (-110). Washington State's offense is the key reason. At 204 yards per game against FBS opponents, the Cougars are unlikely to score much against Arizona. If Washington State is held to around 10 points, Arizona would need to score close to 40 on its own for the Over to hit.
The Wildcats should score, but a big lead would likely lead them to shorten the game in the second half. The total has also moved up from 47.5 to 48.5, giving Under bettors an extra point of cushion. A final in the low 40s fits this matchup.
Arizona vs Washington State Final Score Prediction
- Projected Final Score: Arizona 31, Washington State 10
- Winner: Arizona Wildcats
- Spread: Arizona -10 (-115) covers
- Total: 41 points, Under 48.5 hits
Fifita should pick apart the Washington State defense once again, building a lead by halftime. The Cougars will struggle to protect Pinnick, and Voorhes won't find the same running room he had against Duquesne. Washington State may find a big play or two, but not enough to keep up. Arizona controls the second half and wins 31-10, covering the spread and staying under the total.
How to Wager On Arizona vs Washington State
This matchup rewards bettors who trust the better quarterback against one of the nation's weakest offenses. Arizona -10 at -115 gives you the Wildcats at a much better number than the -13.5 opener. The line has settled at 10 despite recent Washington State money, so there's little reason to wait for a better number.
The Under 48.5 fits the same game script: Arizona builds a lead with Fifita and Washington State's offense struggles to finish drives. Bettors who like both plays can pair Arizona -10 with the Under in a same-game parlay, since a comfortable Wildcats win with a limited Cougar offense helps both legs. The total has moved back up to 48.5, so grab the Under now before it drops back to 47.5.
For more ways to find value on games like this one, check out our breakdown of the top AI picks platforms. You can also read our Dimers review for simulation-based projections, or explore our Oddible review to see how another data-driven tool can help you spot edges across the college football board.
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