LIU vs FIU Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday September 26 2026
Saturday's Long Island vs Florida International prediction comes with one of the biggest point spreads on the board. LIU travels to Pitbull Stadium in Miami for a 6:00 PM ET kickoff on September 26, with FIU favored by 35.5 points and the total set at 50.5. The Panthers are 1-2 after facing three FBS opponents, while the Sharks are 0-4 and still looking for their first win. FIU holds a big edge in talent, depth and quarterback play, but an offense that has scored 10 or fewer points in two of its three games makes a five-touchdown spread a lot to lay. For more weekend edges across the board, check out our full slate of college football picks.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Long Island +35.5 (-110)
- Total Pick: Under 50.5 (-110)
- Projected Final Score: FIU 34, Long Island 10
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Long Island Sharks | +35.5 (-110) | Over 50.5 (-110) |
| FIU Panthers | -35.5 (-110) | Under 50.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Long Island | Florida International | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/23 | +35.5 (-110) | -35.5 (-110) |
The spread hasn't moved since it opened. FIU was set as a 35.5-point favorite with standard -110 juice on both sides, and the number has held. There are no betting splits yet, so the market hasn't shown a lean in either direction. For bettors, that means you can take the opening number without chasing movement. A line this large that hasn't moved suggests the market sees 35.5 as fair, and that leaves room to question whether FIU's offense can actually cover it.
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/23 | 50.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) |
The total has also held steady at its opening number of 50.5, with even -110 juice on both sides and no betting splits. With no movement, bettors can get the opening price on either side. Given how little both offenses have produced in most of their games this season, 50.5 looks like a number built on FIU scoring heavily, and that is far from a sure thing.
Long Island vs Florida International Key Matchups and Game Preview
This is a big step down in competition for FIU. The Panthers have played three FBS opponents, losing 19-9 to South Florida, beating Buffalo 33-20 and losing 16-10 to Florida Atlantic. Long Island is 0-4 after losses to North Dakota, Kansas, Albany and Villanova. FIU has clear advantages in size, depth and quarterback play, but its offense has been inconsistent, and that matters a lot when you're asked to cover five touchdowns.
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Florida International Holds the Quarterback Edge
J.J. Kohl gives the Panthers the best quarterback in this game. He has thrown for 930 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions through three games. His best outing came against Buffalo, when he threw for 367 yards in FIU's only win. Kohl has shown he can produce big passing numbers, and against an LIU defense that has given up big point totals, he should have chances to push the ball downfield. The five interceptions are a concern, though. Turnovers could stall drives and keep the margin from growing as quickly as a 35.5-point spread requires.
Long Island Passing Game Struggles
The Sharks' passing attack has been limited. Luca Stanzani has thrown for 375 yards and two touchdowns through four games. That is less than 100 passing yards per game, and it shows how hard LIU has found it to move the ball through the air. Jalen Brown leads the receivers with 115 yards. Against a bigger, deeper FIU roster, Long Island's passing game will likely struggle again, which keeps its scoring low but also shortens the game.
FIU Receiver Mike Anderson
Mike Anderson leads the Panthers' receivers with 324 yards and two touchdowns. He is Kohl's top target and the player most likely to produce big plays against the Sharks. Anthony Carrie leads the ground game with 124 rushing yards. FIU has the pieces to move the ball, but outside of the Buffalo game, it hasn't turned those pieces into consistent scoring.
Long Island Ground Game With Ethan Greenwood
Ethan Greenwood is the Sharks' most productive player. He leads LIU in rushing and is coming off a 142-yard effort against Villanova, his best game of the season. If Greenwood can build on that performance, Long Island can control the clock, shorten the game and limit FIU's possessions. That approach is exactly what helps an underdog stay inside a big spread and what helps an Under.
LIU Defense Under Pressure
The Sharks' defense has had rough outings. LIU gave up 51 points at Kansas and 42 at North Dakota. Those results show why FIU is such a big favorite. However, the defense looked much better in the 20-16 loss to Villanova. Rafael Fasolino recorded 11 tackles in that game, and the Sharks also generated points through special teams. That improvement is a key reason Long Island has a chance to keep this closer than the spread suggests.
Florida International Offense Has Been Inconsistent
The biggest question for the Panthers is their scoring. FIU put up 33 points against Buffalo but only 9 against South Florida and 10 against Florida Atlantic. To cover 35.5 points, the Panthers likely need to score in the 40s or hold LIU to almost nothing. The step down in competition should help, but an offense that has struggled to score in two of three games is a risky bet to win by five touchdowns.
Why Long Island Can Stay Inside the Number
FIU should win this game, but covering 35.5 points is a different challenge. The Panthers' defense has been solid, allowing 19, 20 and 16 points, so Long Island may not score much. But FIU's offense has not shown it can pile up points consistently. If Greenwood runs well and the Sharks shorten the game, a margin in the 20s is far more likely than a 36-point blowout.
LIU vs FIU Betting Trends
Long Island Trends
- Long Island enters Saturday at 0-4.
- The Sharks have lost to North Dakota, Kansas, Albany and Villanova.
- LIU gave up 51 points at Kansas and 42 at North Dakota.
- The Sharks lost 20-16 to Villanova in their most recent game.
- Long Island has not scored more than 21 points in any game this season.
- Luca Stanzani has thrown for 375 yards and two touchdowns.
Florida International Trends
- FIU enters Saturday at 1-2.
- The Panthers lost 19-9 to South Florida and 16-10 to Florida Atlantic.
- FIU beat Buffalo 33-20 for its only win.
- The Panthers have scored 10 or fewer points in two of three games.
- FIU has allowed 19, 20 and 16 points in its three games.
- J.J. Kohl has thrown for 930 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions.
LIU vs FIU Key Injuries and Things To Know
Sharks Injury Outlook
No major confirmed injury absences stand out for Long Island in the latest available team information. The Sharks should have their key contributors available, including Ethan Greenwood, Luca Stanzani, Jalen Brown and Rafael Fasolino.
Panthers Injury Outlook
No major confirmed injury absences stand out for FIU either. The Panthers should have J.J. Kohl, Mike Anderson and Anthony Carrie available, so there is no clear injury adjustment that changes the matchup at this stage.
Things To Know Before Long Island Travels South
With no major injury concerns on either side, this game comes down to matchups and game flow. FIU's edge in size, depth and quarterback play should let the Panthers control possession and create short fields. But the size of the spread is what matters most for bettors. FIU's offense has struggled to score in two of three games, and Long Island showed improvement defensively and on special teams in its loss to Villanova.
The key factor to watch is whether Greenwood can run effectively. If LIU can stay on the field and keep the clock moving, the number of FIU possessions drops, and the Panthers will have fewer chances to build a 36-point lead. That game script supports both the Long Island spread and the Under.
Long Island vs Florida International Side and Over/Under Picks
LIU Spread Pick
The spread pick is Long Island +35.5 (-110). FIU is the better team and should win comfortably, but 35.5 points leaves very little room for error. The Panthers have scored 9 and 10 points in two of their three games, and Kohl's five interceptions show that FIU's offense can stall. For the Panthers to cover, they would need their best offensive performance of the season and a near shutout.
Long Island has shown signs of improvement. The Sharks lost only 20-16 to Villanova, got a big rushing game from Greenwood and scored on special teams. If LIU can run the ball and shorten the game, FIU is more likely to win by three touchdowns than by five.
Under Pick for FIU vs LIU
The total pick is Under 50.5 (-110). Long Island has not scored more than 21 points in any game, and against an FIU defense that has allowed no more than 20 points this season, the Sharks will likely finish in single digits or the low teens. That leaves FIU needing to score around 40 points on its own for the Over to have a chance.
The Panthers have done that zero times this season, with a high of 33 against Buffalo. Their other two games produced 9 and 10 points. If Greenwood controls the clock for LIU, the number of possessions drops even further. A final in the low-to-mid 40s fits this matchup well.
Long Island vs Florida International Final Score Prediction
- Projected Final Score: FIU 34, Long Island 10
- Winner: FIU Panthers
- Spread: Long Island +35.5 (-110) covers
- Total: 44 points, Under 50.5 hits
FIU should control the game with Kohl finding Anderson for big plays and Carrie adding production on the ground. Long Island will struggle to move the ball through the air, but Greenwood's running should help the Sharks shorten the game and keep the margin in check. The Panthers' defense holds LIU to 10 points, but the FIU offense doesn't pile up enough to reach the 36-point margin needed to cover. A 34-10 Panthers win cashes the Long Island spread and the Under.
How to Wager On Long Island vs Florida International
This matchup is a classic case of a big favorite that should win but may not cover. FIU is clearly the better team, but laying 35.5 points with an offense that has scored 10 or fewer points twice this season is a risky bet. The Long Island +35.5 at -110 gives bettors a five-touchdown cushion against a Panthers attack that hasn't shown it can consistently score at a high level.
The Under 50.5 fits the same game script, with FIU's solid defense limiting LIU and the Panthers' inconsistent offense keeping its own total in check. Bettors who like both plays can pair Long Island +35.5 with the Under in a same-game parlay, since a controlled FIU win helps both legs. Both lines have held at their opening numbers, so you can lock in the current prices before the 6:00 PM ET kickoff.
For more ways to find value on games like this one, check out our breakdown of the top AI picks platforms. You can also read our Dimers review for simulation-based projections, or explore our Oddible review to see how another data-driven tool can help you spot edges across the college football board.
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