Navy vs UAB Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday September 25 2026
Navy comes out of its bye week with one major question hanging over the program, and this Navy vs UAB prediction starts with the status of starting quarterback Braxton Woodson. The senior injured his ankle in a 38-30 loss at Florida Atlantic, but an MRI showed no structural damage, and he is considered week to week. Even with that uncertainty, the matchup itself leans heavily toward the Midshipmen. Navy has won the last three meetings with UAB by an average of more than 20 points, and the Blazers have struggled badly against service academies, going 0-5 straight-up in their last five tries. Add in a UAB coaching staff with very little experience defending the triple option, and there is a clear angle on this game. The spread has dropped all the way to the key number of 7, and the total has fallen two points. For more weekly edges, check out our full slate of college football picks, then read on for the complete breakdown.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Navy Midshipmen -7 (-110)
- Total Pick: Under 51.5 (-112)
- Projected Final Score: Navy 31, UAB 17
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Navy Midshipmen | -7 (-110) | Over 51.5 (-108) |
| UAB Blazers | +7 (-110) | Under 51.5 (-112) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Navy | UAB | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/21 | -7 -110 | +7 -110 | UAB 57%, NAVY 50% |
| 09/21 | -7 -115 | +7 -105 | UAB 57%, NAVY 50% |
| 09/21 | -7 -112 | +7 -108 | UAB 57%, NAVY 50% |
| 09/21 | -7 -115 | +7 -105 | UAB 57%, NAVY 50% |
| 09/20 | -7 -118 | +7 -102 | UAB 57%, UAB 60% |
| 09/20 | -7.5 -102 | +7.5 -118 | NAVY 88%, NAVY 60%+ |
| 09/20 | -7 -115 | +7 -105 | NAVY 88%, NAVY 60%+ |
| 09/20 | -7.5 -102 | +7.5 -118 | NAVY 88%, NAVY 60%+ |
| 09/20 | -7 -115 | +7 -105 | NAVY 88%, NAVY 60%+ |
| 09/20 | -7.5 -102 | +7.5 -118 | NAVY 88%, NAVY 60%+ |
| 09/20 | -7.5 -105 | +7.5 -115 | NAVY 88%, NAVY 60%+ |
| 09/20 | -7.5 -110 | +7.5 -110 | NAVY 88%, NAVY 60%+ |
| 09/20 | -7.5 -115 | +7.5 -105 | NAVY 88%, NAVY 60%+ |
| 09/20 | -8.5 -105 | +8.5 -115 | NAVY 88%, NAVY 60%+ |
| 09/20 | -8.5 -112 | +8.5 -108 | NAVY 88%, NAVY 60%+ |
| 09/20 | -9.5 -112 | +9.5 -108 | NAVY 88%, NAVY 60%+ |
| 09/20 | -10 -105 | +10 -115 | NAVY 88%, NAVY 60%+ |
This spread has taken a significant journey. Navy was listed at -10 early, and the number fell quickly to -9.5, -8.5 and then -7.5. After bouncing between -7.5 and -7 several times, it settled at Navy -7, where the juice has moved between -110 and -118 before landing back at even -110. That is a full three-point drop, and it came even while Navy held 88% of the money early in the process.
The quarterback injury is the most logical explanation for that movement, as the market adjusted to the uncertainty around Woodson. The splits have since tightened, with UAB now holding 57% of the money and the tickets split evenly at 50%. For bettors who believe in this matchup, that correction is an opportunity. Navy can now be backed at the key number of 7 rather than laying double digits, and a two-touchdown type of win would clear it comfortably.
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/21 | 51.5 -108 | 51.5 -112 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/21 | 51.5 -115 | 51.5 -105 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/20 | 51.5 -118 | 51.5 -102 | - |
| 09/20 | 52.5 -105 | 52.5 -115 | - |
| 09/20 | 52.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | - |
| 09/20 | 52.5 -115 | 52.5 -105 | - |
| 09/20 | 53.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | - |
| 09/20 | 53.5 -115 | 53.5 -105 | - |
The total opened at 53.5 and has steadily fallen, first to 52.5 and then to 51.5. Once the number reached 51.5, the Over was briefly priced at -118, and the public jumped in with 100% of the money and tickets on the high side. The market has not rewarded that action. The Over has eased from -118 to -115 and now -108, while the Under has flipped from -102 to the favored side at -112.
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That is reverse line movement at its clearest. Every dollar is on the Over, yet the Under is becoming more expensive. Combined with a two-point drop from the opener, the market is pointing toward a lower-scoring game, which fits the way a triple-option offense tends to control the clock.
Key Matchups and Game Preview: Navy vs UAB
This matchup is all about preparation. Navy's triple-option attack is one of the most unique schemes in college football, and it requires a very specific defensive plan. When a service academy faces a young or first-time head coach, the first place to look is the coaching staff's experience defending the option, and in UAB's case, that experience appears to be very limited.
Navy Quarterback Braxton Woodson's Ankle
Senior quarterback Braxton Woodson suffered an ankle injury in the 38-30 loss at Florida Atlantic, eventually handing the reins to Jackson Gutierrez. The good news for Navy is that an MRI revealed no structural damage. Woodson is considered week to week, and his availability will come down to pain tolerance and how much mobility he can produce on the injured ankle. The bye week gives him extra time to heal, which is a meaningful advantage. In a triple-option offense, quarterback mobility is critical, so his status will be worth monitoring right up to kickoff. If he cannot go, Gutierrez already has game experience from the Florida Atlantic contest.
UAB Coaching Staff vs the Triple Option
UAB head coach Alex Mortensen is an offensive-minded leader who came from Nick Saban's Alabama coaching tree, and it is safe to assume he does not have much experience preparing for the option. Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham worked in the SEC from 2017 to 2022, then spent two seasons in the NFL as the defensive line coach for the New Orleans Saints, and it is safe to assume he did not see many triple-option offenses in either of those leagues. Defensive line coach Sam Mills III arrived in Birmingham after coaching 17 seasons in the NFL, and it is safe to assume he does not have any experience against the option. That lack of familiarity across the entire defensive staff is a significant disadvantage against a scheme as disciplined and specialized as Navy's.
Navy Dominance in the Series
Navy has won the last three meetings with UAB by scores of 31-6, 41-18 and 38-24. Those are margins of 25, 23 and 14 points, all well above the current spread of 7. The Midshipmen have consistently controlled this matchup, and the scheme mismatch has shown up clearly on the scoreboard.
UAB Struggles Against Service Academies
The Blazers' struggles are not limited to Navy. UAB lost by 34 and 18 to Army over each of the last two years. Combined with the three losses to Navy, UAB is 0-5 straight-up and 1-4 against the spread in its last five games against service academies, with an average margin of defeat of 22.8 points per game. That trend speaks to how difficult it has been for this program to handle option-based offenses.
Blazers Rebuilding After Dilfer Era
There is respect for what Mortensen is building with the Blazers program, but Trent Dilfer left UAB a massive hole to dig out of. Rebuilding takes time, and preparing for a scheme as unique as the triple option in the middle of that process is a tall order. UAB is still developing the depth and discipline needed to handle an opponent like Navy.
Betting Trends: NAVY vs UAB
- Navy has won the last three meetings with UAB by scores of 31-6, 41-18 and 38-24.
- UAB lost by 34 and 18 against Army over each of the last two years.
- UAB is 0-5 straight-up and 1-4 against the spread in its last five games against service academies.
- UAB's average margin of defeat in those five games is 22.8 points.
- Navy is coming off a bye week after a 38-30 loss at Florida Atlantic.
- The spread has dropped from Navy -10 to Navy -7.
- The total has fallen from 53.5 to 51.5, with the Under now favored at -112 despite 100% of the money on the Over.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: NAVY vs UAB
Navy Injury Report
- Braxton Woodson: Quarterback, week to week (ankle, no structural damage)
- Jackson Gutierrez: Quarterback, available if Woodson cannot go
Woodson's status is the most important injury factor in this game. His mobility is key in the triple option, and the bye week gives him extra recovery time. Gutierrez stepped in during the Florida Atlantic game, so Navy has a backup with recent in-game experience.
UAB Things To Know
- Head Coach: Alex Mortensen, an offensive-minded coach from the Alabama coaching tree.
- Defensive Coordinator: Todd Grantham, with SEC and NFL experience but little likely exposure to the triple option.
- Defensive Line Coach: Sam Mills III, who spent 17 seasons coaching in the NFL.
- Program Status: UAB is rebuilding after the Trent Dilfer era.
The UAB coaching staff's limited background against the option is the defining factor in this matchup. Preparing for Navy's scheme is a unique challenge, and this staff will be facing it with very little prior experience to draw from.
Navy vs UAB Side and Over/Under Picks
NAVY -7 Spread Pick
Navy -7 at -110 is the play. The Midshipmen have won the last three meetings by 25, 23 and 14 points, and UAB has lost its last five games against service academies by an average of 22.8 points. The Blazers coaching staff has little experience defending the triple option, and the line has dropped three points due to the quarterback uncertainty. Even if Woodson is limited, the scheme mismatch should allow Navy to control this game and win by more than a touchdown.
NAVY Total Pick: Under 51.5
The Under 51.5 at -112 follows the market and the matchup. Navy's triple option is designed to control the clock and shorten the game, limiting the number of possessions for both teams. The total has dropped two points from its opener, and the Under has become the favored side despite 100% of the public money on the Over. With a quarterback working through an ankle injury, Navy may lean even more heavily on its ground game, which further supports a lower-scoring contest. The projected 31-17 final lands at 48 total points.
- Spread Pick: Navy Midshipmen -7 (-110)
- Total Pick: Under 51.5 (-112)
Final Score Prediction
Expect Navy to lean on its triple-option attack from the opening drive, grinding out long possessions against a UAB defense that has little experience preparing for it. Whether it is Woodson or Gutierrez at quarterback, the Midshipmen should control the tempo and keep the Blazers offense off the field. UAB will find some points, but Navy extends its series winning streak with another comfortable victory.
- Projected Final Score: Navy 31, UAB 17
- Spread Result: Navy -7 cover
- Total Result: Under 51.5 cashes with 48 total points
How to Wager On Navy vs UAB
The best approach is to back Navy -7 as the primary play and pair it with the Under 51.5. Both picks are rooted in the triple-option mismatch. Navy's scheme should give UAB problems while also shortening the game, and a 31-17 type of result cashes both positions.
Key numbers are critical in this spot. The spread has settled on 7, one of the most important numbers in football, so be sure not to lay more than a touchdown if the line moves back up. Monitor Woodson's status throughout the week, since positive news on his ankle could push the line back toward -7.5 or higher. On the total, the Under has been gaining value despite heavy public support for the Over, so locking in 51.5 before any further drop is a smart move.
If you want to compare this handicap with model-driven projections, explore our breakdown of the top AI picks platforms. You can also read our full Dimers review to see how its simulations evaluate college football spreads, along with our Oddible review for another tool that can help you find value before placing your wager on Navy vs UAB.
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