New Mexico St. vs Hawaii Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Sunday September 13 2026
Hawaii looks to right the ship at home against New Mexico State this week, and this Hawaii vs. New Mexico State picks preview breaks down the odds, the line movement and the matchup angles bettors need before kickoff. For more college football picks and predictions like this one, check out our college football predictions hub before locking in any wagers on this one.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: New Mexico State +7.5 (-120)
- Total Pick: Over 49.5
- Final Score Prediction: New Mexico State 31, Hawaii 27
Odds and Line Movement
Here is where the numbers stand heading into kickoff, along with the full line movement tracked across the last couple of days for both the spread market and the total.
Current Odds: Hawaii vs. New Mexico State
| Market | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread - New Mexico State | +7.5 (-120) |
| Spread - Hawaii | -7.5 (-102) |
| Total - Over 49.5 | -105 |
| Total - Under 49.5 | -115 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | New Mexico State | Hawaii | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | +7.5 -120 | -7.5 -102 | HAW 98%, HAW 67% |
| 09/10 | +7.5 -120 | -7.5 -102 | HAW 98%, HAW 67% |
| 09/08 | +7.5 -120 | -7.5 -102 | NMSU 100%, NMSU 100% |
| 09/08 | +6.5 -104 | -6.5 -118 | NMSU 100%, NMSU 100% |
| 09/08 | +6.5 -102 | -6.5 -120 | NMSU 100%, NMSU 100% |
| 09/08 | +6.5 -104 | -6.5 -118 | NMSU 100%, NMSU 100% |
| 09/08 | +7.5 -122 | -7.5 +100 | NMSU 100%, NMSU 100% |
| 09/08 | +7.5 -122 | -6.5 -122 | NMSU 100%, NMSU 100% |
| 09/08 | +6.5 +100 | -6.5 -122 | NMSU 100%, NMSU 100% |
| 09/08 | +7.5 -124 | -7.5 +102 | NMSU 100%, NMSU 100% |
| 09/08 | +7.5 -122 | -7.5 +100 | NMSU 100%, NMSU 100% |
| 09/08 | +7.5 -112 | -7.5 -108 | NMSU 100%, NMSU 100% |
| 09/08 | +7.5 -106 | -7.5 -114 | NMSU 100%, NMSU 100% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | 49½-105 | 49½-115 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/10 | 49½-105 | 49½-115 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/09 | 49½-105 | 49½-115 | - |
| 09/09 | 49½-110 | 49½-110 | - |
| 09/08 | 48½-118 | 48½-104 | - |
| 09/08 | 48½-108 | 48½-112 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
Hawaii vs. New Mexico State: Key Matchups and Game Preview
This wasn't the plan at Hawaii, which was thinking it had a chance at the Group of 6 spot in the playoffs less than two weeks ago before painful losses to Stanford and UNLV scotched those designs before Labor Day. Now, with sights adjusted to merely qualifying for the hometown Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, the question is whether the Rainbow Warriors can recover.
Hawaii's Offensive Struggles
Hawaii's offensive output in two weeks has been basically limited to a span of about eight minutes in the fourth quarter of the opener at Palo Alto, when the Rainbow Warriors scored 20 points. Across the other 112 minutes, Hawaii has scored all of 13 points. Sophomore southpaw quarterback Micah Alejado has also already been sacked seven times, and he has been betrayed several times by receivers with a case of the dropsies, with no downfield threats having materialized yet.
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New Mexico State's Defensive Strength
In Hawaii's favor is that Tony Sanchez and his visiting New Mexico State side are probably a notch or two below the Stanford and UNLV teams that beat the Rainbow Warriors already this season. Still, while the Aggies defensive front isn't the college equivalent of the Rams' long-ago Fearsome Foursome, they did harass Florida State's Ashton Daniels into some less-than-stellar numbers in the opener, a game New Mexico State covered easily in Tallahassee. With six returning starters from a veteran defense a year ago, New Mexico State looks like it can hold its own against the current edition of the Warriors.
HAW Passing Game Concerns
Hawaii's passing attack under Timmy Chang has yet to find any rhythm through two games, and with Alejado already sacked seven times and receivers dropping catchable passes, the Rainbow Warriors' offensive concerns look like they could carry over into this matchup.
Aggies' Passing Attack
Meanwhile, Furman transfer quarterback Trey Hedden has New Mexico State a bit excited in Las Cruces, not afraid to whip the ball downfield while recording 525 passing yards and four touchdown passes across the first two games.
NMSU vs. HAW Betting Trends
The public was firmly on New Mexico State earlier in the week, showing 100% on both metrics across every recorded snapshot on 09/08. That flipped sharply by 09/10, when Hawaii drew 98% on one metric and 67% on the other in both recorded snapshots. On the total, the Over has held 100% of both metrics in the snapshots where public data was reported, including on both 09/10 snapshots and one from 09/08.
NMSU and HAW: Key Injuries and Things To Know
- No specific injury information is included in the available matchup content for either program heading into this game.
New Mexico State vs Hawaii Side and Total Picks for Hawaii vs. New Mexico State
- Spread Pick: New Mexico State +7.5 (-120) — the reservation in backing New Mexico State is discarding a recent powerful trend in which Hawaii had covered 14 straight at home against FBS-level opposition, but that streak went by the wayside last week against UNLV, making it easier to lean toward the Aggies and a veteran defense that already frustrated Florida State's offense in Tallahassee.
- Total Pick: Over 49.5 — Trey Hedden's 525 passing yards and four touchdowns across two games give New Mexico State enough firepower to push this total, even with Hawaii's offense struggling to find consistency behind Micah Alejado.
Final Score Prediction: Hawaii vs. New Mexico State
- New Mexico State: 31
- Hawaii: 27
This projection reflects New Mexico State's defensive strength and Trey Hedden's downfield passing carrying the Aggies to a comfortable margin, while Hawaii's brief offensive bursts, like the one seen against Stanford, keep the Rainbow Warriors within shouting distance of the total.
How to Wager on Hawaii vs. New Mexico State
For this matchup, the clearest value sits with New Mexico State getting more than a touchdown given Hawaii's well-documented offensive struggles and the fact that the Rainbow Warriors' long home-cover streak against FBS opponents already snapped last week, paired with the Over given Trey Hedden's productive start to the season. The line movement tables above also show the spread settling between 6.5 and 7.5 points over the last couple of days, so bettors comparing entry points can see how the number has fluctuated.
Before locking in a wager on this matchup, it can help to compare projections from more than one model. Our AI picks hub breaks down how different AI-driven tools are approaching games like Hawaii vs. New Mexico State, including a closer look at the Dimers review and the Oddible review for anyone wanting a second opinion on the spread or total before betting this one.
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