Robert Morris vs Buffalo Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday September 26 2026
Robert Morris travels to Broadview Stadium to face Buffalo on Saturday, September 26, with a 3:30 PM ET kickoff, and this Robert Morris vs Buffalo prediction comes down to whether a banged-up Bulls offense can cover nearly four touchdowns. Buffalo enters at 1-2 after a 55-13 loss at Penn State and a 33-20 defeat at FIU, and the Bulls will turn to backup quarterback Jason Wright for his second career start with Elijah Holmes out. Robert Morris is 2-1 and coming off a bye following a 45-10 loss at Akron, and the Colonials have a healthy roster with a quarterback who has already thrown seven touchdown passes. Buffalo is a massive 28.5-point home favorite, but its offensive injuries and a scoring average of just 18.0 points per game make that a big number to lay. For more weekly edges, check out our full slate of college football picks, then read on for the complete breakdown of the spread, total and projected final score.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Robert Morris Colonials +28.5 (-110)
- Total Pick: Under 44.5 (-110)
- Projected Final Score: Buffalo 31, Robert Morris 10
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Robert Morris Colonials | +28.5 (-110) | Over 44.5 (-110) |
| Buffalo Bulls | -28.5 (-110) | Under 44.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Robert Morris | Buffalo | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/23 | +28.5 -110 | -28.5 -110 | - |
The spread opened with Buffalo as a 28.5-point home favorite at standard -110 juice on both sides, and it has not moved. No betting splits have been posted yet, which means bettors can still grab the opening number before the market reacts to injury news or early action.
A spread of nearly four touchdowns is steep for a Buffalo offense that has struggled to produce points. If the Bulls injury situation worsens as the week goes on, this number could drop, which would make the current +28.5 even more valuable for Robert Morris backers.
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/23 | 44.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | - |
The total opened at 44.5 with even juice and has not moved. With neither offense producing efficiently through the first month of the season, this number sits in a range where the Under has value. Buffalo's quarterback change and injuries at the skill positions add further reasons to expect a lower-scoring game.
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Key Matchups and Game Preview: Robert Morris vs Buffalo
Buffalo owns the stronger overall roster and should control this game at home, but the Bulls enter with significant offensive uncertainty. Robert Morris, meanwhile, arrives rested and healthy, with a quarterback who has shown he can move the ball through the air. The matchup favors Buffalo winning, but not necessarily by more than four touchdowns.
Robert Morris QB Carson Haggard
Robert Morris quarterback Carson Haggard has completed 51 of 85 passes for 609 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. That touchdown-to-interception ratio shows Haggard has been efficient and careful with the football. The Colonials have already shown they can put up points against weaker opposition, and Haggard's ability to produce through the air gives them a path to scoring against Buffalo, which is critical for staying within a large spread.
Robert Morris Big-Play Threat Galen Combs
Galen Combs has emerged as Haggard's top target with 15 catches for 307 yards and five touchdowns. Averaging more than 20 yards per catch, Combs gives Robert Morris a legitimate big-play option. Even one or two explosive plays can make a major difference when a team is getting more than four touchdowns, and Combs is the player most likely to deliver them for the Colonials.
Buffalo Quarterback Transition
Buffalo's quarterback situation is complicated. Elijah Holmes has been dealing with a knee injury and is out, so Jason Wright is expected to make his second career start. Starting a quarterback with limited experience creates uncertainty, particularly for a team that needs a big offensive performance to cover a 28.5-point spread. Wright may be asked to manage the game rather than push the ball, which would limit Buffalo's scoring potential.
UB Relies on Chance Morrow
Chance Morrow has been the most dangerous playmaker for the Bulls, recording 20 catches for 252 yards and five touchdowns. Buffalo will likely try to create explosive plays by targeting Morrow against a Robert Morris secondary that will be facing a noticeable jump in competition. He is the key to Buffalo's offense, and if he has a big day, the Bulls could build a large lead. Still, with other receivers sidelined or questionable, defenses can focus more attention on him.
Bulls Offense Struggling to Find Rhythm
Buffalo has produced just 18.0 points and 274 yards per game, while Robert Morris has averaged 22.3 points and 302 total yards. Neither offense has been especially efficient through the opening month. For the Bulls, those numbers are a warning sign when laying nearly four touchdowns. A team scoring 18 points per game needs a massive improvement to cover a spread this large, and doing so with a backup quarterback and injured skill players makes it even harder.
Betting Trends: RMU vs UB
- Buffalo enters at 1-2, while Robert Morris is 2-1.
- Buffalo lost 55-13 at Penn State and 33-20 at FIU.
- Robert Morris is coming off a bye following a 45-10 loss at Akron.
- Robert Morris averages 22.3 points and 302 total yards per game.
- Buffalo averages 18.0 points and 274 total yards per game.
- Carson Haggard has seven touchdown passes and two interceptions.
- The spread and total have not moved from their openers of 28.5 and 44.5.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: RMU vs UB
Buffalo Injury Report
- Elijah Holmes: Quarterback, out (knee)
- Alvin Jones III: Wide receiver, sidelined
- Terrance Shelton Jr.: Running back, sidelined
- Several receivers: Questionable
- Jason Wright: Quarterback, expected to make his second career start
Buffalo's injuries are the defining factor in this handicap. Losing Holmes forces a quarterback change, while the absences of Jones and Shelton reduce the Bulls options at receiver and running back. With several other receivers questionable, Buffalo's offense could be very thin, which makes it difficult to trust the Bulls to cover a large spread.
Robert Morris Things To Know
- Health: Robert Morris currently has no major injuries listed.
- Rest: The Colonials are coming off a bye week.
- Quarterback: Carson Haggard has 609 passing yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions.
- Top Receiver: Galen Combs has 307 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
Robert Morris enters this game rested and healthy, which is a significant advantage against a banged-up Buffalo team. The Colonials will be facing a jump in competition, but they have the passing game to stay competitive.
Robert Morris vs Buffalo Side and Over/Under Picks
Robert Morris +28.5 Spread Pick
Robert Morris +28.5 at -110 is the play. Buffalo's offensive injuries and quarterback transition create too much uncertainty to trust a 28.5-point spread. The Bulls average only 18.0 points per game, and they will be without Holmes, Jones and Shelton, with several other receivers questionable. Robert Morris is healthy, rested and has a quarterback capable of producing through the air. Buffalo should win comfortably, but the projected 21-point margin keeps the Colonials inside the number.
UB Total Pick: Under 44.5
The Under 44.5 at -110 fits a game featuring two offenses that have not been especially efficient. Buffalo is expected to win comfortably without necessarily producing enough offense to create a blowout, and a backup quarterback with limited weapons is likely to play conservatively. Robert Morris will face a step up in competition, which could limit its scoring. The projected 31-10 final lands at 41 total points, below the number.
- Spread Pick: Robert Morris Colonials +28.5 (-110)
- Total Pick: Under 44.5 (-110)
Final Score Prediction
Expect Buffalo to control the game at home, with Morrow providing the biggest plays and Wright managing the offense. However, the Bulls injuries should keep them from putting together the type of dominant performance needed to cover nearly four touchdowns. Haggard and Combs find the end zone once, and a Robert Morris field goal keeps the Colonials within the number. Buffalo wins comfortably, but the Colonials cover.
- Projected Final Score: Buffalo 31, Robert Morris 10
- Spread Result: Robert Morris +28.5 cover
- Total Result: Under 44.5 cashes with 41 total points
How to Wager On Robert Morris vs Buffalo
The best approach is to pair Robert Morris +28.5 with the Under 44.5. Both picks rely on Buffalo's offense being limited by injuries and a quarterback change, and a 31-10 type of result cashes both. When a big favorite has offensive questions, taking the points and the Under together is often the most logical way to attack the game.
Keep a close eye on Buffalo's injury report throughout the week, especially the status of the questionable receivers. If more pass catchers are ruled out, the spread and total could both drop, so locking in +28.5 and the Under at 44.5 early could be the best move. Compare sportsbooks as well, since grabbing +29 or better would add valuable protection on a spread this large.
If you want to compare this handicap with model-driven projections, explore our breakdown of the top AI picks platforms. You can also read our full Dimers review to see how its simulations evaluate college football spreads, along with our Oddible review for another tool that can help you find value before placing your wager on Robert Morris vs Buffalo.
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