SMU vs Florida State Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Monday September 7 2026
SMU heads to Tallahassee for a primetime Monday night matchup against Florida State, and bettors searching for sharp college football picks should pay close attention to how much confidence the market has placed in the Mustangs after Florida State's uneven season-opening performance. Mike Norvell's group struggled to pull away from New Mexico State in Week 0, and now the Seminoles face a much tougher offensive test. Below is a full breakdown of the odds, line movement, matchups, and our picks for the spread, total, and final score.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: SMU -3 (-105)
- Total Pick: Over 53.5 (-110)
- Projected Final Score: SMU 31, Florida State 27
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| SMU | -3 (-105) | 53.5 (O -110 / U -110) |
| Florida State | +3 (-115) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | SMU | Florida State | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | -3 (-105) | +3 (-115) | SMU 80%, SMU 77% |
| 09/07 | -3 (-102) | +3 (-118) | SMU 79%, SMU 77% |
| 09/06 | -3 (-105) | +3 (-115) | SMU 79%, SMU 79% |
| 09/06 | -3 (-102) | +3 (-118) | SMU 79%, SMU 79% |
| 09/05 | -3 (-105) | +3 (-115) | SMU 86%, SMU 80% |
| 09/05 | -3 (-102) | +3 (-118) | SMU 86%, SMU 80% |
| 09/04 | -3 (-105) | +3 (-115) | SMU 85%, SMU 81% |
| 09/04 | -3 (-102) | +3 (-118) | SMU 85%, SMU 81% |
| 09/04 | -3 (-105) | +3 (-115) | SMU 85%, SMU 83% |
| 09/04 | -3 (-102) | +3 (-118) | SMU 85%, SMU 83% |
| 09/04 | -3 (-105) | +3 (-115) | - |
| 09/04 | -3 (-102) | +3 (-118) | SMU 89%, SMU 86% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | 53½ (-110) | 53½ (-110) | OV 81%, OV 91% |
| 09/06 | 52½ (-115) | 52½ (-105) | OV 99%, OV 90% |
| 09/06 | 53½ (-108) | 53½ (-112) | OV 99%, OV 90% |
| 09/05 | 52½ (-112) | 52½ (-108) | OV 98%, OV 87% |
| 09/05 | 53½ (-108) | 53½ (-112) | OV 98%, OV 70% |
| 09/05 | 52½ (-115) | 52½ (-105) | OV 98%, OV 70% |
| 09/04 | 53½ (-108) | 53½ (-112) | OV 90%, OV 64% |
| 09/04 | 52½ (-112) | 52½ (-108) | OV 90%, OV 64% |
| 09/04 | 53½ (-108) | 53½ (-108) | OV 90%, OV 60% |
| 09/04 | 53½ (-108) | 53½ (-108) | OV 90%, OV 60% |
| 09/03 | 53½ (-110) | 53½ (-110) | OV 90%, OV 60% |
SMU vs Florida State Key Matchups and Game Preview
Florida State's Defensive Concerns
Mike Norvell better hope he's got a good poker face. After a not-so-impressive performance against New Mexico State in the opener, Norvell needs to convince the Seminole faithful that he was saving the good plays for Monday's primetime spot against the Mustangs. New Mexico State went 4-8 last season with an incoming class of talent that ranks 137th in the country according to 247Sports. Yet the Aggies were within a touchdown at the end of the third quarter, and probably could have gotten even closer if it hadn't been for a costly interception thrown in the Seminoles' end zone. If Furman transfer Trey Hedden is able to go 26-of-42 with 272 passing yards and two touchdowns against you, then you've got some things to work out before the Mustangs arrive. We are willing to give Norvell and QB Ashton Daniels a pass in their debut game together, but we can't extend that courtesy to Florida State's defense. After allowing New Mexico State to go 10-of-17 on third down, the Seminoles are now tasked with defending an offense that returns almost everyone.
SMU Returns Its Core Pieces
Florida State is now facing an SMU offense that returns almost everyone. Dynamic QB Kevin Jennings returns for his third season with the 'Stangs, and he's got six more returning starters on offense around him. That kind of continuity is a significant advantage against a Florida State defense that has already shown vulnerabilities in Week 0.
Mustangs Face a Dangerous Seminoles Offense
We know it didn't look pretty in Week 0, but it's easy to forget how good Florida State's offense was last season. The Seminoles were top-30 in yards per game, points per game, yards per play, offensive success rate and explosive plays, while playing at a top-20 pace. Judging by what we saw from Florida State's defense in the opener, Norvell and Daniels may need to win games through shootouts, which sets up a potentially high-scoring affair in Tallahassee.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
FSU vs SMU Betting Trends
- SMU has been favored at -3 throughout the entire week of line movement, showing no shift in market confidence.
- Public betting has consistently leaned toward SMU, ranging from 77% to 89% across the tracked movement.
- The total has fluctuated between 52.5 and 53.5, with heavy Over support appearing in nearly every update.
- Florida State has been priced between -115 and -118 on the spread depending on the number, reflecting a stable market view of the Seminoles as home underdogs.
Key Injuries and Things To Know (FSU vs SMU)
Florida State's defense allowed New Mexico State to convert 10-of-17 third downs in Week 0, a clear area of concern heading into a matchup with a far more experienced SMU offense. Furman transfer Trey Hedden's ability to move the ball through the air against Florida State in the opener, going 26-of-42 for 272 yards and two touchdowns, further highlights the issues Norvell's defense will need to address before facing Kevin Jennings and SMU's returning playmakers.
SMU vs Florida State Side and Over/Under Picks
With SMU returning almost its entire offense behind a third-year starter in Kevin Jennings, and Florida State's defense already exposed against a far less talented New Mexico State roster, the Mustangs' -3 spread looks like fair value on the road. Florida State's offense remains capable of keeping pace, having ranked top-30 in scoring and efficiency a season ago, which points toward the total clearing given how shaky both defenses have looked or project to look in this spot.
- Spread Pick: SMU -3 (-105)
- Total Pick: Over 53.5 (-110)
Final Score Prediction
With Florida State's defense already showing cracks and SMU boasting a veteran quarterback and six returning starters on offense, expect this one to turn into the shootout that Norvell and Daniels may be forced into, with SMU coming out on top in a close finish.
- Projected Final Score: SMU 31, Florida State 27
How to Wager On SMU vs Florida State
Bettors looking to shop the best number on the SMU spread or the Over 53.5 total for this primetime matchup should compare multiple sportsbooks before locking in a wager, since even small differences in spread pricing or total juice can affect long-term value. For those who want additional guidance beyond this preview, our AI picks tool breaks down model-driven projections for games like SMU vs Florida State, while our Dimers review and Oddible review both offer additional angles on how algorithmic models are pricing this matchup compared to the current market.
Betting on College Football?
- Bet with other College Football fans at the best sportsbooks
- Sign up today and get started with the latest college football sportsbook promos
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Get $350 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 7 days
New DraftKings Customer: SPEND $5, GET $200 IN BONUSES
